A fragile ceasefire

Trump's impressive performance belies fragility in America and the region. Jewish donors face increased political risks in the USA.

The most remarkable part of Trump’s 13 October marathon day in the Middle East - which included speaking before a session of the Knesset and a Peace Summit in Egypt’s Sharm el Sheikh - was his revelations about how his foreign policy worked.

While speaking in the Knesset, Trump praised Miriam Adelson, and explained how her billionaire late husband’s funds had gotten Trump to recognise the Golan Heights as part of Israel. Trump followed up by saying that he had asked Adelson whether she loved Israel or America more. She had refused to say. “That might mean Israel” continued Trump.

Miriam Adelson at the Knesset before Trump’s speech.

Just like that, Trump confirmed that Jewish donors who were more loyal to Israel than America had a disproportionate effect on American foreign policy in the Middle East.

It was obvious to all that this is how the system worked. But, the system relied on silence and secrecy. Wittingly or unwittingly, Trump ended that. Just like he had ended the pretence that Sunni jihadis were America’s enemies, rather than a foreign policy tool. Just as Netanyahu had shown that, left to its own devices, Israel would wreck the entire Middle East to expand its borders. America’s foreign policy, and Israel, both now stand naked. All pretences relating to rules, values or even American national interests have been shattered.

It is through this lens of a system breaking down that everything else in the region should be read. Indeed, one remarkable part of Trump’s day was the extent that it was obvious that he was prioritising the interests of the Muslim world over those of Israel.

While Trump bragged that he had dragged European leaders to Egypt with just twenty minutes’ notice (and made a point of humiliating Keir Starmer), Arab and Muslim leaders were likely wondering: how long is America’s attention span? And, what happens if the American system breaks down?

These two questions are the main reason that the ceasefire that Trump imposed on Netanyahu and Hamas is unstable. Israel has revealed herself to be, in their eyes, the most ruthless, destructive, unreliable, and adventurous force in the Mideast. It went from asking Qatar to help manage Hamas to bombing Qatar. It attacked Syria even after its supposed enemy in Syria, Assad, had fallen. It signed a ceasefire with Lebanon but refuses to adhere to it. And it killed at least 50k-60k civilians in Gaza and flattened the entire Strip, threatening war with Egypt and Jordan to expel the Palestinians permanently.

The Arabs and Muslims are now weak compared to Israel. Trump has been humiliating the Arabs since 2015, before he took office, and consistently blackmailing them. But America has proven to be unreliable: it failed to defend Saudi Arabia when attacked by the Houthi, and could not prevent Israel from attacking Doha. Furthermore, an isolationist populist president who takes on Jewish donors may emerge after Trump. He could quite easily decide to abandon the Middle East. Then what? These questions must be in the back of Arab and Muslim leaders’ minds.

And they must be on the back of Israeli leaders’ minds: witness how Netanyahu went around the USA bribing influencers to change perceptions of Israel, expanded lobbying activities to change social media narratives, and praised the acquisition of TikTok by Larry Ellison, a Jewish businessman who is also the biggest single donor to the IDF. The Israelis can see that the American public has had enough of them, especially the younger generation.

With all of the above in mind, the ceremony in Sharm el-Sheikh, in which Trump, Turkish President Erdogan, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and Egyptian President Sisi all signed a commitment to peace, may be seen as a last hurrah, as an end, not a beginning. It is evident that Biden, Obama, Bush, or Clinton could not assemble such a crowd at such short notice. It is evident that Trump is an exception by the force of his character and his unpredictability. It is also evident that he has no immediate political heirs.

For now, the Gaza War is over. Until Trump is preoccupied with something else, or another president replaces him. But nothing that caused the Gaza War is over. There is no pathway to peace. There is no Israeli government that can rein in the Zionist expansionist right in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Hamas is not fully defeated, nor will it allow itself to be disarmed. Gaza’s reconstruction will probably not begin any time soon, even if aid continues to flow. And the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank remains extremely vulnerable to infighting after the passing of Mahmoud Abbas.

And when the war resumes, the Arabs and Muslims must ask themselves: will there be an American president who can rein in Israel? If not, what should they do now to prepare?

One option would be for Muslim states to simply take full control of Palestinian territories. But the Israelis would not accept that. Nor will the Palestinians accept foreign rule, even by Muslims, if this means that they need to continue to accept gradual Israeli expansionism.

Indeed, full international control, based on a Muslim-American partnership that reins in the ambitions of both Jews and Palestinians, maybe the only option. But that would have to occur in the teeth of opposition from both sides, requiring a high tolerance for casualties and a willingness to police the two sides aggressively. The Israelis would never relinquish their sovereignty in this way.

Our view, therefore, is that Trump’s plans for the Middle East will follow his plans for a deal with Iran, peace with Russia, and a trade deal with China: they will fail.

Commercial Implications:

• The conflict between the Republican base and the donor class will escalate. The base will want to disentangle itself from the Middle East and the Muslim world generally, while the donor class will want to keep America in the region.

• Strategically, policymakers will increasingly have to choose between confronting China and Russia and backing Israel. The base will demand that Israel be de-prioritised.