American Embassy Staff Evacuate Jerusalem and Baghdad
This is a strong indicator that war is imminent.
This will be very brief.
The authorisation of the withdrawal of non-essential American embassy staff and their families from Jerusalem and the withdrawal of staff from Baghdad are very strong indicators that attacks on Iran are imminent, as is Iranian retaliation. The language was somewhat unusual - inviting citizens to leave while commercial flights are available.
Some American embassy staff in Beirut were ordered to evacuate on 23 February.
American aircraft carrier strike group Gerald Ford arrived in Israel today.
On 26 February, the Iranians and the Omani mediators reported that talks between Iran and the USA on the nuclear issue had gone well. Technical talks were scheduled for the “coming days”. Typically, it is the technical details that are hardest, but, progressing to them implies that there is enough progress on the political side to move to the technical side.
A journalist close to Iran reports that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has pre-authorised a list of targets throughout the region, and ordered military commanders to prepare for a protracted conflict. Previously, Khamenei had ordered the designation of four successors for each command.
The American military build-up.
KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refuelling tankers were sighted at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport. This is highly unusual and is a consequence of the evacuation of the Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar. Due to Qatar’s refusal to allow the Americans to use its territories for attacks on Iran. This makes it very likely that Tel Aviv Airport will be targeted as will military radars throughout the Gulf.
KC-135 tankers at Tel Aviv Airport seen today on social media.
These factors suggest that, as occurred ahead of the June 2025 strike, the Americans are using diplomacy as cover ahead of escalation. The above factors are consistent with final preparations for a strike tonight. That said, it is, as always, up to Trump.