Another Iran War?

Multiple indicators of escalation have been triggered, suggesting that war with Iran is imminent.

Commercial Summary: Another escalation against Iran would have implications for Russia-Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Taiwan, and the USA. A war would be lengthier than the last one, with China and Russia more supportive, and Iran less vulnerable to surprise. Collapse for Israel among the right would collapse, potentially proving to be a game changer.

Over the past few weeks, there have been several indicators of additional escalation with Iran, along with Israeli media reports of an upcoming war.

1. The Pentagon Pizza indicator: online accounts monitor the activity of pizza shops around the Pentagon and a nearby gay bar. When the activity in the former peaks, and the latter collapses, it typically indicates Pentagon officials working long nights, suggesting planning for a major event. This indicator was triggered during the night of 28/29 September, ahead of a 29 September Netanyahu-Trump meeting.

2. Movement of aerial refuelling tankers: these are being moved from the USA east towards Europe. Critically, this is occurring before the Trump-Netanyahu meeting, perhaps showing Trump’s personal irrelevance. Presumably, he is the decision maker, but the American state apparatus is operating as if his consent is a given.

3. The snapback mechanism kicked into place: European countries triggered a mechanism to re-impose UN sanctions as part of the JCPOA agreement, just as the initial 10-year term of the deal was coming to an end. Iran had said that an earlier agreement between it and the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN body that tries to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation, would break down in the event of snapback.

4. Death of diplomacy: Iran’s Supreme Leader announced that there was no point in negotiations with Iran. Iranian President Pezeshkian also wrote off negotiations, claiming that the USA’s demands were too unreasonable.

5. The USA expanding Israel’s missile defence: satellite imagery shows that the USA has added another four Terminal High Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) systems to the existing six in Israel. This is a major increase, reflecting the effectiveness of Iranian missiles and preparation for war.

   

   Satellite image of the new THAAD sites in Israel from BasedIMINT.

6. Likely Russian and Chinese weapons shipments: Russian military cargo planes are flying into Iran, suggesting that Russia is working on shoring up Iranian air defence, with rumours of S-400 being deployed. Open source reports suggest that Iran is seeking Chinese HQ-9 air defence systems as well. Neither of those is confirmed. There are images circulating claiming to show Russian MiG-29s in Iran. The USA and Israel will want to strike Israel before more of these systems are operational.

Commercial Impact

MENA

• Iranian missiles will force a shutdown over the airspace of Israel, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and perhaps Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar.