Back to 6 October 2023

Although severely weakened, Hezbollah will not implement the ceasefire agreement, but will instead prepare for the next war. This raises the risk of bouts of war in 2025.

At 4 am local time, when the 60 day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into into effect, residents of south Lebanon, most of whom are Hezbollah supporters, began returning to their villages, including to the border with Israel.

This almost certainly provided cover for the rotation and resupply of fighters, with the aim of preparing for a new ro…