Belfast riots
A prelude for a long summer
Following the attempted beheading of a British man in Belfast by a Sudanese migrant who had been granted asylum under the previous Tory government, riots broke out in Belfast and other parts of Northern Ireland, while protests took place in many parts of England.
What we are seeing is the white communities in Britain beginning to recognise themselves as a distinct and aggrieved group, angry with forced mass immigration, and willing to organise.
Organised violence
The Northern Irish, given the history of Catholic and Protestant militancy, have an advantage here, in that they are disciplined and have considerable paramilitary experience.
The violence we saw in Belfast, Northern Ireland reflected this: small groups of masked men deployed checkpoints, banned photography and recording, and went around certain areas to properties they knew to house migrants and to businesses owned by migrants, like Turkish barbershops and vape shops, which are often involved in money laundering, and kebab shops. They broke the windows and sometimes set the properties on fire. While the masked men were attacking the properties, there were protests and burning objects at key junctions in the city, paralysing the police response.
We would guess that this violence involved men securing both ends of targeted streets, ready to intercept police to give the perpetrators time to escape. We would also guess that it also involved spotters, whose role would be to identify approaching police, and runners or signallers, whose role would be to relay messages without using easily traceable smartphones. Obviously, this reflected a good deal of knowledge of the neighbourhoods, based on local intelligence. It also showed strong social cohesion and an existing social or paramilitary hierarchy. Moreover, these paramilitary groups are able to police their own neighbourhoods, and seriously injure or kill anyone who cooperates with the police.
English protests
In England, the picture was different. In England, the protests were mainly in London and Liverpool. There, small groups of people gathered, in London, largely peacefully. In Liverpool, by contrast, there was harassment targeting migrants, especially those in Deliveroo and similar services’ uniforms. In Southampton, far left protesters showed up - the city had seen disorder following the verdict being issued in the Henry Nowak murder case. Antifa also showed up in Bristol to counter a protest there. Today, news came out that a 17-year old girl had been gang-raped by four Afghan men, one of them a minor, suggesting that more protests are likely.
The English protests were considerably smaller and much less organised. The protesters in England do not have similar paramilitary structures to those in Northern Ireland, nor are they similarly disciplined. However, it is very likely that they will learn, and try to connect with Protestant groups in Northern Ireland.
Contagion?
Our view is that the Northern Ireland template may well spread to Britain, and perhaps to parts of Europe, especially in small and mid-sized urban areas. It is harder to replicate in larger urban centres given the lack of community cohesion - there, it is the migrants (first, second, and third generation) who are more able to organise in such a manner.
If this trend escalates, and the public are not convinced that the problem of mass migration is being addressed and at least partly reversed, the key risk in large urban areas is of wider attacks, such as, in the next few years, car bombs, or large scale demonstrations aimed specifically at attacking and burning certain neighbourhoods in their entirety. We would not be surprised if Ukrainians join up with European nativist groups to transfer skills to them.
State legitimacy
The state is likely unable to prevent this. As discussed earlier, Britain’s elites, like most European elites, have entirely lost their legitimacy and credibility. It has become impossible to hide crimes by migrants in the age of social media. Indeed, even BBC reporting that is intended to downplay the severity of certain crimes is becoming provocative to the public. It has also become impossible for the native British to accept that the state has their best interests at heart, or that it is just willing to offer them benign neglect. Rather, the prevailing view among the right is that the state is the enemy of the people.
