British local elections
Labour and Conservatives face a crisis, while Reform lacks a plan
On 1 May, England held local elections for some councils and mayors, as well as a by-election for a parliamentary seat in a safe Labour constituency. Labour lost that parliamentary seat to Reform by just six votes. Critically, in that seat, Labour previously had a 53% majority against Reform’s 18% and the Conservatives’ 16%. Labour’s inability to hold on to such a safe seat reflects their broader crisis. In mayoral elections, it became clear that Reform is now the voters’ opposition party, even if the Conservatives are the parliamentary opposition party, as it was Reform that scored second place in most contests.
The Labour Party
The problem facing the Labour Party is this: they were the working class party, but they have now become the party of the Civil Service, the quangos, the minorities who compete with the working class and depress their wages, and of the university student idealists. Simply, this is not a large enough coalition, and their ability to hold this coalition together is weakened by the war in Gaza, and the ensuing increasing assertiveness of Muslims in Britain, who are running independent candidates in areas that were previously safe labour seats. The coalition that Labour represents is breaking down, in part due to increasing public anger over immigration, and to the increase of political and religious sectarianism in a previously homogenous society. Labour finds itself talking tough against immigration, but, if it were to implement anti-immigration policies, it would lose the minority vote, on which it depends, especially in urban areas. If it fails to implement such policies, it loses the native vote.
The Conservatives
The Conservative membership elected Kemi Badenoch, a Yoruba British citizen, to lead their party. This reflected the sentiments of aging liberals in the Conservative party, who are keen to avoid any discussion of ethnicity, identity, and religion, but want to push back on elements of the culture war. The working class is looking for an alternative party, and the Conservatives are trying to win them over, but, given their track record from 2010 to 2024, especially on immigration, they are not trusted.
Moreover, Ms Badenoch is nowhere near being the best talent that the Conservatives have, nor is she sufficiently organised, energetic, coherent, prepared, or charismatic to have broader appeal.
If the Conservatives were to replace her before the 2029 election, however, there is a high risk that the split in the right wing vote would deliver power to Labour once again.
Reform
This leaves Reform as the last default option. Nigel Farage, however, is a highly polarising figure, most famous for the Brexit campaign, about which the British electorate is still somewhat divided. Farage has been repeatedly burned by his ideas appealing to enthusiasts who are perceived by the media as extreme. He therefore has to work hard to keep his own side in check, and to fend off attacks from a media establishment that still sees racism as the main threat facing Britain.
Critically, Reform, does not yet have a clear plan to govern. This is partly intentional - it suits Nigel Farage to be all things to all men. And it is partly the result of Farage’s own cavalier attitude to making plans, and his political opportunism.
Implications
Britain is facing a major crisis in governance and in the legitimacy of the state. To hold on to power, Labour will have to abandon parts of its ideological project, including Net Zero, benefits for illegal and legal migrants, elements of the Equalities Act (which is forcing employers to give equal pay for fundamentally different jobs, leading to enormous and highly costly lawsuits, one of which has already bankrupted the Birmingham Council). However, doing so is electorally costly and may fray the unity of the party, whose activist base, and some even in the cabinet, is dominated by extremist far left ideologues.
The result is a combination of greater uncertainty around government policy, as Labour tries to shore up its position with voters, and increased political instability, due to the result of party coups. All while the risk of riots due to unforeseen incidents, such as another terrorist attack or an escalation between India and Pakistan, rises.
The worst case scenarios include Labour remaining in power in 2029, due to divisions within the right, or a Reform cabinet in 2029 that is utterly unprepared to govern, or a financial crisis resulting from the Labour governments high spending and high taxation policies.