Ceasefire or a runaway fire?
If the war continues, the map of the GCC will change, with some countries becoming unviable, as a global economic crisis intensifies.
Commercial topics: The Red Sea, Iran’s attempts to dismantle the economies of the smaller Gulf states, China’s reaction to the war, risks to power, water, energy, aviation, and shipping.
As the war turns increasingly existential for Iran, the Iranian strategy strategy will be to threaten to make certain parts of the GCC so uninhabitable as to preclude the possibility of these states being able to provide the Americans with basing rights. We are already seeing signs of this in Kuwait, with the attacks on desalination plants. In our view, the next two targets are Bahrain and the UAE. Iran’s aim will be to collapse the economies of these states and their societies by striking their biggest vulnerability: water desalination plants, which provide more than 90% of potable water in the region.
The question for the United States will be whether to seek a ceasefire before Iran completes its plan.
Simultaneously, by targeting American bases in Qatar, the UAE, and especially Bahrain and Kuwait, the Iranians are also reducing the number of American bases available for use against Iran, and disabling more American radars. The idea is simple: to limit the Americans’ freedom of action in the region, reduce the number of bases they can fly from, force the Americans to concentrate their air assets in fewer bases - particularly in Jordan, western Saudi Arabia, and Israel - and limit the number of potential American sorties. In addition, reducing the number of radars delays air defence reaction times. Combined with aircraft being more concentrated in fewer bases, this makes missile strikes on American bases more effective, especially as troops end up being more concentrated in Jordan. It also forces air defence systems to launch more interceptors at each Iranian missile - given the slower reaction time and the higher risk of impact. This serves to deplete increasingly limited air defence missiles faster.
