Damascus' Fall and Risks to Jordan

How the risk profile of the Hashemite Kingdom changes as a result of Assad's overthrow

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has been struggling with maintaining its legitimacy, given its close economic ties to Israel and the deep hostility of its population to Israeli actions against West Bank and Gazan Palestinians.

The Islamist opposition, led by the Muslim Brotherhood’s local branch, is the largest bloc in Parliament but has minimal say in governance. Real power is wielded exclusively by the crown. With Syria appointing a Muslim Brotherhood Prime Minister to lead the transitional period, this risks setting an example that the Jordanians may wish to follow.

Islamic Action Front’s parliamentary leader MP Saleh Al Armouti

With Assad gone, Syria becomes the theatre of fresh proxy wars between especially Israel and Turkey, with Iran in a secondary role. This fundamentally changes Jordan’s economic and security risks, as Turkey is the Muslim Brotherhood’s main regional sponsor.