Does the Iran War Resume?
That, or the double blockade continues indefinitely.
American President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a war on Iran has left all sides in a quagmire. The Iranians have closed Hormuz, while Trump is blockading Iranian ports.
Iran’s troubles
The Iranians are facing a severe maritime blockade. Although some ships are getting through, other ships owned by Iran and sanctioned by the USA are being seized. Iran is likely to struggle to replace these ships. Over time, if the American blockade remains, Iranian energy exports will likely collapse, even though current reporting indicates that some Iranian ships are getting through.
Furthermore, the Iranian currency is collapsing, food inflation was soaring even before the war started, and Iran is highly dependent on food imports. Although Iran had tried to stockpile before the war began, a long siege is guaranteed to raise prices significantly and cause widespread shortages. It is likely that Russia would assist Iran, but the amounts that can be exported through the Caspian or overland will be smaller and dearer.
Additionally, the Iranians do not trust that the Americans will negotiate in good faith. Iran was attacked twice during negotiations. The ongoing American military build-up, including a third aircraft carrier arriving in the region and reportedly more air transport flights than before the actual war, suggests that the Americans plan on going to war again anyway.
