End of Week Summary

Russia-Ukraine, Israel- Gaza, South Africa

This is a brief in a new format combining several topics. We will brief you on the topics then include a commercial summary at the end behind a paywall.

Russia-Ukraine

Europe is escalating to block America’s withdrawal from the Ukraine war, while Russia expands its objectives.

• The US is giving up on supporting Ukraine, and will no longer refer to the Russian invasion as illegal.

• France is sending ships to monitor Russia’s shadow fleet, while Estonia is occasionally seizing Russian ships that violate sanctions, leading Russia to send fighter jets to defend its ships.

• This points to a simple, dangerous, dynamic: American policymakers are not interested in pursuing the Ukraine war further, because the location of the borders of Ukraine has no relevance for the China-America competition. Separating Russia from China is the main strategic priority.

• There are two results:

  1. Europe is escalating the conflict to tie down the Trump administration and keep it committed to the war.

  2. Putin has announced that the Ukraine invasion will expand to include a buffer zone in Ukraine’s territory, using a large scale Ukrainian drone attack that threatened the safety of civil aviation as a pretext.

Israel-Gaza

With a plan for more countries to recognise the state of Palestine, Israel will escalate the war in the hope of a full ethnic cleansing of Gaza.

• International condemnation against Israel is increasing, given its intent to keep out humanitarian aid.

• Humanitarian aid is a complex question: militants benefit from it. But they are always the last to starve in any conflict. And aid does delay conflicts rather than shorten them.

• Israel’s declared policy is to ethnically cleanse Gaza, and there is consensus about this aim within the Israeli cabinet.

• American support for Israel is dwindling, and Israel’s popularity is collapsing, especially among the young in the West.

• France plans to recognise a Palestinian state, and there are suggestions that Canada, Great Britain, and Belgium may also do so.

• This makes it important for Hamas to hold on indefinitely, until international pressure to end the war. This also makes it critical for Israel to win the war.

• Meanwhile, rumours claim that Israel plans to strike Iran, perhaps in a bid to force the Americans to back it.

South Africa

Trump’s humiliation of South Africa’s president is likely to backfire, impacting investments in South Africa.

• Trump humiliated South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa by showing him videos of stadiums full of tens of thousands of supporters of the Economic Freedom Fighters and their leader, Julius Malema, chanting “shoot to kill, kill the Boer, the farmer”, and promising to occupy land by force.

• Trump also played a video of former South African President Jacob Zuma calling for expropriation of land without compensation.

• This is now legal in South Africa, in part thanks to a constitutional amendment presented by the EFF and backed by the ANC. The ANC and EFF, although competitors in some ways, often vote together in support of racial laws and black ethnonationalism and economic nationalism.

• Trump also showed a memorial for thousands of white farmers killed by black criminals, who often then try to take their land. The memorial was dedicated to Ramaphosa, who claimed never to have seen it.

• Ramaphosa, for his part, tried to downplay South Africa’s racial laws (which are now more numerous than during apartheid). He also repeatedly asked for more American investment in South Africa.

• Ramaphosa’s team claimed that there was no targeting of whites, but that South Africa is extremely violent.

Commercial Implications