Galaxy Leader: a Test and a Trap

Just as Hamas prepared for an Israeli ground operation, Ansar Allah are prepared for US or Israeli special forces seeking to liberate Galaxy Leader. Their aim is to show that Iran polices the seas.

Commercial Summary: In this piece, I address the timeline for the Galaxy Leader’s release, the perils of a rescue operation, and likely future targets for the Ansar Allah Movement.

The Ansar Allah (Houthi) Movement said on 19 November that they had seized the vehicle carrier Galaxy Leader. Modad Geopolitics gave more details on the seizure, here

Israeli media reported that a helicopter was used to board the ship. It is unclear what kind of if this was the only mechanism used.

This is a well-thought out move intended to show that trade in the Red Sea - including in the Suez Canal - passes through at Iran’s discretion. Israeli media is seeking to portray this as an international incident affecting global trade, while the Yemenis are claiming this is targeted only against Israel. The Israelis are, this time, correct. The messages from this seizure apply to regional states, to oil importers globally, especially in the West, and to Israel.

The Galaxy Leader

The US’ bind

The US will be under pressure to respond to this incident, given its role as guarantor of freedom of shipping. The US can ignore small acts of piracy, as these are criminal in nature, but it cannot ignore a politically motivated attack of this nature. In that sense, the capture of the ship is a test. But the US cannot conduct a rescue operation without risking sinking the vessel and killing the crew - in that sense, the capture of the Galaxy Leader is a trap. The US also has no benefit in bombing Yemen - Saudi Arabia and the UAE did that from 2015 to 2023 using American aircraft, intelligence and weapons, and it was mostly pointless. The UAE and Saudi Arabia did manage to stop Ansar Allah from taking Aden, for now, but that is all - the war on Yemen made Ansar Allah far more formidable.

The also US cannot accept Iran’s role, partly given the extreme support for Israel among the US’ political leadership (less so the public), and partly because this would amount to forgoing the US’ role as protector of global trade. The US’ only choice appears to be to condemn this act, issue protestations, and then do nothing. That, however, would confirm that Iran has the ability to stop shipping anywhere in the Red Sea.

Rescue operation?

A special forces rescue would be extremely risky, as it would have no element of surprise. Given that the Houthi and Iran behind them are demonstrating their dominance of global trade, it would be more politically astute for them to have the ship sunk rather than rescued, and they have likely prepared accordingly. It is very likely that the seizure of the ship has taken into account the possibility of a US or Israeli Special Forces operation to release the ship. Therefore, it is almost certain that the ship is being held in an area covered by air defence and anti-ship missiles, with Yemeni special forces deployed to prevent the ship’s release. The crew have very likely been dispersed to multiple locations, with only a small proportion left at the ship as bait and human shields.

Risk Implications

It is likely that this will not be the last such operation by Ansar Allah.