Goodbye, NATO

Why the Trump - Putin dynamic suggests that the Americans will leave NATO in the coming four years.

Commercial Summary: America’s objective goes far beyond ending the war in Ukraine, and extends to building a full partnership with Russia. The geopolitical and commercial implications are unimaginable for European leaders.

In the Kremlin’s readout of the Putin-Trump call of 18 March. the Russians stated that they were seeking a “settlement that would be comprehensive, reliable and lasting, and naturally, take into account the root causes of the crisis, as well as Russia’s legitimate security interests”. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the causes of the crisis are the expansion of NATO - not just to Ukraine, but also beyond the German border. Russia’s “legitimate security interests” most likely extend to the Baltic States, Serbia, Georgia, Armenia, Romania, and Bulgaria.

Ukraine’s army is slowly breaking, as the Russians prepare for a general offensive across the frontline.

Critically, there was never any chance that the call would result in a ceasefire: the Russians are winning the war. They will not give up without attaining their goals in full, which almost certainly include control over Odessa, the disarmament of Ukraine, and closing any path it has to NATO membership or to receiving Western weapons.

The agreement on an energy ceasefire serves Russia, as does an agreement to secure navigation in the Black Sea. And both help Trump in his effort to bring down inflation. Given the ease of agreement over these issues, we assume that the 2.5 hour call covered a range of other topics.