Hopeless Andy
Why Burnham is destined to fail, and why his honeymoon will be very short
Andy Burnham, MP, who is likely to be crowned Labour leader and Prime Minister by 20 July, set out his economic vision for Britain in a speech on 29 June. He made friendly noises promising to reduce partisanship, but that was not the substance of his speech.
Burnham’s centrepiece was his plan for devolution, promising to send power and resources to other regions, away from London. This is in line with already passed legislation by the Conservative Party to expand local authorities, and as such, at most adds new layers of government rather than changing anything. So far, the track record of this process has involved folding smaller local authorities into larger ones, raising the importance of ethnic voting blocs in urban areas at the expense of majority white rural areas, and therefore also crippling growth. Critically, Burnham did not discuss how these new authorities would generate prosperity. He did not mention taxes, spending, immigration, or welfare, but focussed on raising living standards, creating jobs, and regulation. While Burnham did emphasise re-industrialisation and strengthening manufacturing, he failed to mention the most critical issues: energy policy, planning, and excess regulations. Nor did Burnham address legal absurdities like the Equalities Act, which has now bankrupted or threatened to bankrupt multiple local authorities due to claims that female-majority jobs (administrators, receptionists, assistant teachers) are paid less than harder, more demanding male-majority jobs (binmen, technicians). These laws are raising risks to all manner of other businesses.
Commercial Impact:
Burnham is offering an updated version of tax and spend socialism. He has shown no willingness to reduce government spending and cut taxes and regulations, which is critical to generating growth.
The British government already spends 45p out of ever £1 in GDP, and the tax take is the highest it has been in decades. The budget deficit over 4% of GDP, while growth is under 1%, meaning that, on current trends, only government borrowing is keeping Britain out of a recession.
Burnham’s plan to create a “Number 10 North”, a new administration based in the north to pass power to local authorities, is purely about patronage. What Burnham is promising is more jobs for his allies. Given his far left views on transgenderism, race, and immigration, these jobs will not go to growth generators, but to ideologues who will further paralyse the British economy and increase state dependency.
Promises to build council houses are almost certainly hollow. The British government has committed to building more housing for decades, now. However, this has had no impact.
Burnham is unwilling to address record levels of immigration. Flooding the market with low-wage, low-skill migrants only depresses wages for the working classes while raising spending on public services. It cannot generate growth, and it especially cannot generate higher living standards.
Higher immigration, along with plans revealed by the Home Office to increase the number of refugees, is certain to lead more crime, more racial resentment, and a higher unrest risk. It is very likely that attacks by non-natives on British people, and by British people on non-natives, will increase over the course of the summer.
Like Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham will have a very, very brief honeymoon with the voters, before becoming incredibly unpopular.
The Labour Party is precisely in the same position that the Conservatives were in when they removed Boris Johnson, only somewhat worse: the Conservatives could at least produce a prime minister from their front bench. Like the Conservatives (and much of Reform), Labour are out of ideas, have no mandate, and cannot change much that matters because their worldview is built on a series of destructive falsehoods. All they can offer is managed decline.
Burnham, like his predecessors, will try to keep the bond markets happy. However, Britain is on the edge of a major financial crisis and is at severe risk of contagion should one break out in France or Spain.
That said, Burnham is almost certain to keep Sir Keir Starmer’s declared plan to raise defence spending, with an even greater focus on buying British equipment.
However, whether or not that produces results, or merely cost overruns, is beyond the scope of this piece.