Hormuz remains closed
Iran trying to force the USA to restrain Israel in Lebanon
Commercial concerns: Update on Iranian attacks, shipping, energy, and whether a faux-ouvert Hormuz becomes the new normal.
There is no evidence of Hormuz re-opening, despite the ceasefire. Rather, Iran has said that there may be mines in the Strait, and told all ships to coordinate with the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps - Navy to coordinate safe passage.
This is in line with what we had said in yesterday’s update, that Iran will continue to use Hormuz for leverage, and at most allow a partial re-opening.
Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, where negotiations are set to take place, first posted a tweet, then deleted it, saying that an Iranian delegation would be arriving in Islamabad for talks. It is unclear whether talks will go ahead. Rather, the Iranian power play is to make the Americans arrive for talks, then wait. Trump’s own ramblings about his demands from the talks appear irrelevant.
In what we can only describe as a spite attack, Iran seems to have struck the East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which has become the country’s only export route, as well as Abqaiq facility, which is critical for Saudi Arabia’s entire oil production operations. NASA satellite imagery that monitors fires around the world shows unusual amounts of heat energy coming from these locations, so hot that it precludes the possibility of flaring or normal activities.
Meanwhile, after a brief pause in its operations, and with Israel rejecting any ceasefire, but, rather, intensifying its attacks on civilian targets in Lebanon, Hezbollah has resumed the war with Israel.
