Increase in shipping and energy risks
A very brief update (and an invitation to tomorrow's subscriber call).
Some developments have occurred that warrant immediate attention:
Iran attacked an offshore platform in Kuwait.
Iran also attacked three border posts in Kuwait.
Yemeni government forces conducted strikes on the San’a Airport.
Saudi-owned media announcing Yemeni government strikes on the San’a airport runway to prevent an Iranian plane from landing there.
Commercial Implications
The strike on Kuwaiti offshore energy is as much a message to Qatar as it is to Kuwait: it is just as easy to strike Qatari gas platforms in the North Dome field, which Qatar shares with Iran. It also signals the possibility of Iran returning to attacking oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
The strikes in Yemen signal escalation between the Houthi and their rivals. It is increasingly likely that the Houthi will reimpose their blockade on the Red Sea. If the Iranians are going to use the Houthi card, now is the time to do it. We had predicted this would happen in the past, but the Houthis have stayed out so far. Now, it is harder for them to justify inaction.
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