India-Pakistan update

India responds to the 22 April terrorist attack by targeting what it claims is terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan.

Commercial Summary: The ongoing escalation is likely to remain contained, but embarrasses the West and weakens its position against China. The airspace over Pakistan and northwest India is likely to remain high risk for the coming week.

On 6 May, India fired 9 air-launched missiles into Pakistani-controlled parts of Jammu and Kashmir, and into Punjab, calling it Operation Sindoor. India claimed it targeted terrorist infrastructure, not Pakistani military sites.

The head of Jaish e Mohammad, a Pakistani terrorist group, confirmed that ten members of his family were killed in the Indian strike.

On 7 May, Pakistan said that it would retaliate to India’s actions, at a time and place of its choosing. There are ongoing artillery and fire exchanges along the border.

Summary of the situation from Damien Symon on X.

Jets shot down

Pakistan seems to have shot down 3 to 5 Indian jets. Pakistan claims it show down three Dassault Rafales, a MiG-29, and a Sukhoi 30MKI. Open sources and the Indian government confirm that three jets were shot down.

Pakistan would have used beyond visual range air-to-air Chinese PL-15 missiles and Chinese air defence systems such as the HQ-9 or the HQ-16. Pakistani open sources claim that the jets were shot down in Indian airspace using air to air missiles, likely PL-15s.

The shootdown of the jets is a national humiliation for India: in almost every country with a half decent military, the air force attracts the most intelligent and most capable officers. It is an elite posting requiring incredible skill and technical ability.

Implications:

• The shootdown of the jets will force India to review its procedures and its posture before escalating further. It may also embarrass the government enough to force it to escalate, however.

• Having so many jets shot down so quickly indicates a major crisis of competence and technology for India: the Indian Air Force was flying its jets without adequate electronic countermeasures or the ability to evade enemy air defence, without having done anything to address this threat.