Insurrection Act or 2026 Mid Term defeat?
Why Donald Trump is likely to invoke the Insurrection Act before the midterms.
America’s polarisation is unrelenting, and a moment of truth is almost upon us.
After far left extremists stormed a church in St Paul, Minnesota to protest against a pastor allegedly working for the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency, the Department of Justice began investigating Minnesota governor Tim Walz, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Fry, and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, all Democrats. American federal law, through the FACE Act, equates access to churches and abortion clinics, and makes it a crime to hinder access to either.
Violence with a purpose
So far, in Minneapolis, two protesters against ICE have been killed - one while allegedly driving a car towards agents, and the second after a gun that had been removed from him apparently misfired while being handled by an ICE agent, causing other panicked agents to open fire at him.
Last year, there were three shootings against ICE, and around two dozen shootings involving ICE. There have been continuous riots and protests aimed at disrupting ICE’s activities. Critically, former President Barack Obama called on his supporters to join the anti-ICE protests. It is highly unusual for a former president to call for unrest (or to continue to reside in DC, as Obama does). The Democratic establishment is rallying to this cause. Minnesota’s Walz even ordered the National Guard to deploy - wearing yellow vests to make sure they were not mistaken for ICE agents - and distribute food and beverages to anti-ICE protesters. There are unconfirmed reports by independent journalists claiming to have infiltrated Signal social messaging act groups that senior state officials in Minnesota are helping coordinate the unrest, and are providing access to car registration databases to allow protesters to identify and target ICE vehicles.
Success in the battle against ICE in a test city like Minneapolis would fully discredit Trump and Trumpism, and become a template for the rest of the country. States like California and New York prohibit the local police from cooperating with federal agents, believing that Trump’s failure would ensure Republican defeats in 2026 and 2028, followed by a stable Democratic majority assured by America’s rapid demographic change. If Minnesota succeeds, they succeed. But, if Trump invokes the Insurrection Act and Minnesota is brought to heel, then they’re next.
The right’s desperation
From the right’s perspective, unrest in Seattle, Washington State, Portland, Oregon, and other leftist dominated locales is unrelenting, with frequent and often violent confrontations between ICE and protesters that sometimes turn lethal. They blame this on lack of resolve on the part of Trump, and his personal unappreciation of the scale of the challenge. They believe that Trump’s failure would be a complete betrayal, and the loss of their last chance at preserving an America recognisable to its founders. Right wing Republicans view immigration as an existential issue: the American children of immigrants often do not integrate, and retain their previous religious and national loyalties. The demographic change in America suggests that it will be majority non-white within our lifetimes. Diversity, as we have long argued, is a very explosive political condition that does not permit democracy.
The Insurrection Act
The Insurrection Act, which applies to instances when states are unable or unwilling to enforce the law, allows the President of the United States to place the national guard and law enforcement under federal control to restore law and order. With the 2026 midterms coming up in January, Trump will likely have to meet his base halfway, and invoke the Act in some states before the midterms. This will have several effects:
Federal and National Guard forces will expand immigration enforcement. This will result in greater unrest by the left.
Faster deportations, and the greater threat of deportation, will affect the census, and therefore the number of House of Representatives seats allocated to Democratic states. There is already talk that, with the existing law-enforcement action in Minnesota, it is set to lose one Congressional seat. This will also affect their seats in the Electoral College, whose delegates elect the President.
This will also affect election outcomes. Democratic states often refuse to enforce voter ID laws and encourage postal voting. There is no good faith reason to do either. The Federal government will intervene in the management of elections to ensure that there is no fraud, using the Insurrection Act as cover.
Democrats will fear that senior officials who are arrested under the Act will cooperate with federal law enforcement, leading to wider exposures about corruption among both Republicans and Democrats.
Federal authorities acting under the Insurrection Act may target the financiers of groups that provide legal aid and bail to protesters, on the premise that the protesters are engaged in insurrection (some of the protesters are armed and have attacked police) and using various federal statutes that allow the Executive Branch to target any group that seeks to overthrow the American government (which is true of groups such as Antifa and BLM) and those who support them. This would put many Democrat donors in the crosshairs. These donors will do everything they can to avoid this outcome (except allow Trump to succeed).
Catch 22
Invoking the Insurrection Act - and applying broadly - could mean that Democrats lose control of key strongholds such as Minnesota, California, Illinois, New York City and state, and other key territories. It would be an extreme move at an extreme time, when, from the left’s perspective, the survival of democracy is at stake, and, from the right’s, the survival of the American Republic. Democrats would see this as a step towards their political exile, not just defeat, and would escalate accordingly.
Conversely, if Trump does not invoke the Act, then he would risk a major defeat in the midterms, as his base would be unenthusiastic about voting. This would invigorate the Democrats, and make it harder for a Republican to win in 2028. Democrats may choose to give amnesty to illegals, while accepting far more legal migrants. Within a few years, the demographics would simply not favour Republicans again. Therefore, if Trump fails, then violence would be the only remaining answer.
We will cover these issues in our upcoming webinars on 27 January and 4 February, and in future pieces. Please follow the links below to register using your work email.
27 January 2026 at 10:00 am UK Time
04 February 2026 at 3:00 pm UK Time
