Modad Geopolitics

Modad Geopolitics

Iran: A Near Miss

The USA was ready to strike, then Trump changed his mind.

Firas Modad
Jan 15, 2026
∙ Paid

By all accounts, war was scheduled for the night of 14-15 January 2026.

The Americans had their aerial refuelling tankers up in the air, from both Qatar and Hawaii, indicating incoming long range strikes. The Israeli Prime Minister’s jet left Israel to Greece as a precaution, something which is standard procedure for Netanyahu before major incoming attacks. American and British non-essential personnel from Qatar’s Udeid Airbase were evacuated. A notice to airmen was issued for Iranian airspace, and flights above Iran practically stopped. The indications were all there.

Image
Screengrab from flight radar showing a solitary flight over Iran - a Mehan Air from China landing in Tehran. The rest diverted.

Trump being Trump, he then changed his mind. He said he had received assurances that the killing of protesters would stop, and that there would be no executions. This was contrary to earlier statements from the head of the Iranian judiciary, who had promised accelerated trials and executions.

Negotiations amid American divisions

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