Iran: Agreement potential
How Israel is trying to sabotage any agreement, why Trump wants to avoid a war, and the risk of an oil embargo.
American President Donald Trump delayed the start of a war with Iran, after a visit from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This is Netanyahu’s sixth visit to Trump, itself a highly unusual number. From that detail alone, it becomes evident that Israeli influence over the Trump administration is unprecedented in American history. And yet, Trump did not commit to a strike, but to trying to reach a deal.
What this reflects is the breakdown within Trump’s own coalition and his focus on the mid-term elections. The American right has turned against Israel, with the exception of the most committed Zionists, and, yet, this has not dented Israeli influence over the administration, as seen from its continued concerted effort to cover up the Epstein files. Trump fears that breaking with his base, which does not in any way support a prolonged war with Iran but may tolerate brief strikes, would jeopardise his party’s mid term prospects. Not to mention the immense pressure from Gulf Arab states, which have pledged enormous investments in the USA, that Trump needs to make his economic claims a success.
Meanwhile, to assuage Israeli concerns and increase pressure on Iran, Trump is keeping up his tough rhetoric, and sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East, the George H W Bush. Militarily, this can be interpreted in two ways. First, it allows any initial strike to be far more substantial. Second, it allows for more prolonged operations if required.
Critically, China is deploying destroyers to the region, and is hinting at sharing intelligence with Iran. China obviously will not intervene militarily, but can assist Iran with targeting and guidance. Essentially, it is raising the cost of American intervention, contributing to Trump’s hesitation. This is highly unusual. Typically, China defers to Russia in questions relating to Iran, and it has not been a reliable ally to Iran. Rather, China consistently sought to maximise its financial benefits from sanctions on Iran, and has avoided making large investments that challenge American sanctions too much.
