Iran: The Regional Hegemon?
If the fragile ceasefire holds, the war intended to cement Israeli hegemony would have spectacularly backfired.
Commercial focus: Will the ceasefire hold, how long it will take for ships to exit the Gulf, how Iran will continue to use Hormuz for leverage, the time needed before normalcy is resumed, what happens if the war resumes.
President Donald Trump announced that an extendable two-week ceasefire had been reached with Iran, allowing talks to proceed in Islamabad, Pakistan. Both the USA and Iran declared victory.
Negotiations
The two-week period will be used to negotiate ten points, formulated by Iran. Talks will begin on 10 April. The points to be negotiated do not mention the nuclear programme, the ballistic missile programme, and Iran’s relations with its proxies - the ostensible reasons for the war, and the main threats to Israel and the region. Iran’s ten points include:
A full American withdrawal from the region.
A ceasefire in Lebanon and other theatres, not just Iran, heavily constraining Israel.
Allowing Iran to collect fees from ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz, in coordination with Oman.
The full removal of sanctions on Iran, as well as paying Iran compensation.
The Art of the Deal supposedly involves beginning with maximalist demands to reach a compromise. In this case, the starting point of the talks is completely set by Iran, and favours it decisively. Not to mention that the regime survived, and maintains full control over Iran. Indeed, the regime’s legitimacy has only increased due to the war.
Moreover, if the ceasefire holds, Iran will be the de-facto hegemon of the Gulf. The Arab states had their energy infrastructure and military bases on their territory pounded, and they did not respond even with full American backing. Now, they are effectively under Iran’s thumb, and it is evident that the Americans will not protect them.
Stable ceasefire?
There is a discrepancy between Farsi and English versions of Iran’s ten points, as the Farsi version includes a right to enrich uranium. The Iranians have sensed American weakness. They will not back down. Rather, the logical course of action for Iran is to insist on maintaining the ability to enrich in the hope of building a nuclear weapon.
It is still conceivable that Iran will allow its enriched uranium to be removed, as had been agreed with Omani mediators, while keeping the option to enrich. However, there is no chance of any concessions on the ballistic missile programme and the relations with proxy - making this a complete defeat for Israel.
Therefore, Israeli efforts to scuttle the ceasefire are a certainty - as we were writing this note, Netanyahu said that he would continue the conflict in Lebanon, in violation of the US-Iran agreement. Iran is likely to fire some more missiles to force Israel’s hand. It is unclear how the Americans would react, but they clearly want out of the war. However, the division within the administration makes the exact outcome highly unpredictable.
