Iran's strategy: No ceasefire until the Americans give up
Making sense of the Iranian madness
This piece covers the commercial implications of the war (paywalled), and explains the American and Iranian strategies.
Before the war began, some Israeli reports estimated that the Iranians have 2k-5k missiles. The Iranian rate of fire, nearly 1k already, suggests that this is a gross under-estimate. Furthermore, there is a Belt and Road terminal in Kazakhstan on the Caspian Sea, which also provides Iran with a direct link to Russia. Both the Chinese and the Russians have every interest in shoring up Iran indefinitely, in order to deplete the American military further. Therefore, as Iranian stockpiles and launchers are destroyed, China and Russia will continue to supply more assets. Not to mention that, given rising hostility between them and Israel, the Turks have every interest in the American intervention in Iran failing. Meanwhile, American interceptors are being rapidly depleted due to the intensity of Iranian fire. When depleted, the Iranians may choose to fire more advanced munitions that can cause significantly more damage. Additionally, even less advanced missiles can be fired in smaller numbers and cause extensive damage in the absence of adequate air defence.
Notably, the Israelis are reporting that Iranian missile fire is intensifying. If true, that would indicate that operations to destroy missile stockpiles and launchers have not succeeded. Moreover, with the Iranians having an open supply line to Russia and China, they are in no hurry to end the war. The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has been handed full authority to pursue the war as they see fit, independently of the political echelon. their interest is in depleting American and Israeli air defence interceptors, and trying to rule Iran as a future military dictatorship.
No talks
Iran has rejected talks already, with de-facto ruler Ali Larijani saying he will not entertain negotiations. This is understandable, given that in June 2025 and in February 2026 the Americans used negotiations as cover to prepare for military operations. Therefore, it appears that Iran’s objective is to replicate Hezbollah’s strategy in 2000 and 2006, which is to continue the war indefinitely until there is an unconditional ceasefire. The Iranians do not want to allow the Americans to have a victory narrative that would justify another round of attacks in the future. This is an unacceptable outcome for Israel, which views Iran as an existential threat, and to President Donald Trump, as it would be a personal humiliation that hands the presidency and the Congress to his enemies. This is precisely Iran’s intent: to humiliate Trump and show him, and any president after him, that attacking Iran is an insane gamble. And, if this fails, the Iranians would have caused so much damage to the region, and to American bases, as to make the American position in the region untenable and even unnecessary. The Iranians are operating on a mindset that mimics that of Assad in Syria: “We rule, or we burn down the region”.
Method to the madness
The Iranian strategy is the worst case scenario that we had previously discussed and thought would not occur simply due to how mad and extreme it is: to go all out and burn the region down. The objective is to make the war so costly that the Americans cannot return to war in the coming few years. This requires Iran to:
destroy American bases in the region, which it is doing with repeated strikes. Bahrain’s Naval Support Base has been severely damaged, as have other regional bases.
