Iraq energy security

A new attack on Khor Mor shows how the negotiations for the cabinet and for influence are being held.

On 26 November, a drone struck a storage tank at Sulaymaniyah Khor Mor gas field, managed by the Emirati companies Dana Gas and Crescent Petroleum, as well as Austria’s OMV, Hungary’s MOL, and Germany’s RWE. The tank in question was American-funded and built by an American contractor. The attack will reportedly lead to a drop in power output by between 1200 MW and 3000 MW, as the field provides gas to local power stations. It occurred one day after meetings between KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and American and French officials that featured discussions on Iraq’s cabinet formation process and reconciliation among the Kurds. US Special Envoy to Iraq Mark Savaya is scheduled to be in Iraq in coming days (he may be there already).

Image from videos after the attack on Khor Mor

As with the July attacks, it is unclear who is responsible. But there are multiple contradictory theories, which we will discuss below.

1. Iran’s allies: Iran wants to ensure that Iraq continues to depend on Iran for gas, and wants to ensure that its voice is heard in cabinet formation talks, in which the USA and Turkey are trying to get a larger representation for their allies.

2. Conflict within the KRG: Previously, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, which dominates Sulaymaniyah, had claimed that a splinter faction led by a member of the Talabani family, which dominates Sulaymaniyah, had used drones in attacks in the province.

3. Turkey’s allies: The Turks are playing a similar game to the Iranians, working to boost their own influence. They also have a hostile relationship with the UAE and are seeking to replace its influence in Iraq (we have argued that Iran and the UAE are natural allies against Turkey). Turkey also has a somewhat hostile relationship with the PUK, given the latter’s close ties with Iran and the PKK. This hasn’t stopped some significant Turkish investments in the PUK though.

Commercial Implications:

• Of the three explanations, we find the first one most likely.