Israel-Lebanon negotiations
Dancing on the edge of the abyss.
Commercial topics: Lebanese bonds, civil unrest, terrorism, civil war.
The Americans are mediating negotiations between Lebanon and Israel after having declared a ceasefire. These are the first direct negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel since the early 1980s, where some factions of the Lebanese government held talks with Israel after it had invaded the country all the way to Beirut. Trump had previously imposed a ceasefire in Lebanon, declaring that Israel was “prohibited” from conducting further attacks. Of course, the Israelis ignored him. The war between Hezbollah and Lebanon is continuing, with Israel continuing to prevent Lebanese residents from returning to their villages and homes south of the Litani River and from some locations north of it.
The State of Lebanon
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawwaf Salam, who are both political novices who were severely overpromoted due to American patronage, believe that Lebanon can be a normal nation state. Of course, our readers realise that a diverse country with a Muslim majority is by definition incapable of functioning as a Westphalian nation state - unless it is under severely authoritarian rule. The cabinet that these two men run had had each of its members vetted by the American Embassy in Beirut to ensure their compliance. Furthermore, it does not include any major political figures, but, rather, disposable junior representatives, allowing the political leaders themselves to maintain distance and manoeuvring room to adapt to military realities. Therefore, the cabinet suffers from a combination of political naivete and weak legitimacy, with room for backtracking. The actual sectarian political leaders of Lebanon allowed the cabinet to issue decrees such as demanding that Hezbollah disarm. However, as Hezbollah continues to fight Israel with at least some effectiveness, they know that this is impossible to implement politically and militarily.
Israel’s view
The Israelis do not believe that peace with Lebanon is possible so long as the Lebanese Shi’a, who largely back Hezbollah, are armed. Moreover, the right wing factions in Israel which dominate the Netanyahu government are seeking territorial expansion. In the 17 May, 1983 abortive peace agreement, the Israelis essentially sought de-facto control, or at least heavy influence, over the Lebanese security forces, in order to compel Lebanon to fulfil its state responsibilities, both in the Westphalian sense and under current international law, by preventing non-state armed groups from attacking Israel. This objective has not changed.
That said, for the factions in Israel that aspire to territorial expansion, these negotiations are merely a mechanism to humour Trump until political and military realities permit them to proceed with the expansionist agenda. They will likely refuse any agreement that forces them to withdraw from South Lebanon. Rather, they are using negotiations as a pressure tactic to drive an even deeper wedge between Hezbollah and Lebanese officialdom.
