Israeli strike on Doha

Regional and global implications; why we think the Greater Israel project is going ahead, at the expense of Jordan and Egypt; and implications for natural gas.

On 9 September 2025, the Israeli Air Force conducted airstrikes targeting a villa in which senior Hamas officials were present in Doha, Qatar. Five members of Hamas were killed, but it is not clear if senior decision makers were among them.

The targeted villa in Doha, Qatar.

The bombing of diplomacy

The Hamas officials had assembled to discuss a recent American peace proposal. Israeli media outlets are saying that this was a ruse to lure these officials and target them.

This is the second time Americans allow their diplomatic initiatives to be used as cover for Israeli airstrikes. The 13 June Israeli surprise strikes on Iran came two days before American and Iranian negotiators were set to meet in Oman - the putative meeting was used to lull the Iranians into a false sense of security.

The importance of this incident cannot be overstated. For hostile global leaders holding tough negotiations with the USA, the worst possible outcome is to look like naïve fools who were duped by the Americans then attacked: their numerous domestic rivals would see their weakness and may decide to move against them. Such leaders will now be far less inclined to take any American diplomatic overtures seriously.

The bombing of allies

Crucially, like Israel, Egypt and Jordan, Qatar is designated as a Major non-NATO Ally (MNNA) of the USA. The USA controls the air defence systems and radars throughout the Gulf Arab states. Meaning that the Americans participated in this strike militarily, albeit passively. They did not allow the air defence systems they control to operate in the Saudi, Kuwaiti, and Emirati air spaces.

This is the second time the USA allows the bombing of a major ally in recent years - the most recent example were the attacks on NordStream 2, which, while allegedly the handiwork of Ukrainian operatives, could not have gone ahead without American approval. The German economy is still de-industrialising due to the loss of cheap Russian gas (also a consequence of American-led European sanctions).

Further considerations

• Israel is pushing the civilians in Gaza City towards the south, closer to the Egyptian border, while still declaring its intent to wreck what remains of Gaza’s urban civilian areas.

• Targeting the negotiating team makes it evident that Israel would rather lose the remaining captives than end the war before it succeeds in expelling the Palestinians from Gaza.

• Israel has a once in a lifetime opportunity to expand its borders, given that Iran is shaken, Syria’s Assad is gone, Hezbollah is defeated, Hamas is barely surviving, and the Palestinian Authority has never been weaker.

• Israel is also working on forcing the Palestinian Authority to collapse in the West Bank, to instil chaos there. It is also destroying some urban areas throughout the West Bank on the pretext of fighting terrorism. Meanwhile, Israeli officials are calling for the full annexation of the West Bank, in line with Netanyahu’s vision of Greater Israel, and with President Donald Trump’s statement that Israel is too small and wondering if it can be made bigger.

• Israel has been attacking the Turkish presence in Syria, striking at bases that could potentially used by the Turks, and likely at Turkish equipment in Syria. It appears that there is no limit to what Israel is willing to do to achieve its aims.

• The willingness of American officials to restrain Israel has eroded dramatically over the last two decades - striking an MNNA would have been unthinkable under George W Bush, Bill Clinton, George HW Bush, or Ronald Reagan. They similarly would never have tolerated the staggering level of civilian casualties in Gaza.

• The Egyptians and Jordanians must now be terrified. The precedent of attacking longstanding American allies has been now set. They can easily be next.

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