Kuwait and UAE Warning
American ground operations against Iran would severely raise risks to critical infrastructure in the GCC
Talks between Iran and the USA are unlikely to succeed - with the usual caveats around Trump’s unpredictability. Meaning that the Americans are likely to launch ground operations against Iran. The 82nd Airborne has been deployed, and is likely to arrive within the next 12 hours to one week - there is a lack of clarity on details. The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (USS Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group) will arrive by 27-29 March. The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit is set to arrive by early to mid-April. As such, we are unsure of the exact timing of the launch of ground operations, but some operations may start as soon as this weekend.
The Americans are likely to target either the islands in the Strait of Hormuz (most likely), or Kharg Island, deeper within the Persian Gulf. Their most likely staging grounds and launch points will be either the UAE for the islands in the Strait, or Kuwait for Kharg.
The Iranians have warned that any country that allows its territory to be used as a staging ground by American forces launching a ground operation will have its infrastructure destroyed. Our view is that the Iranians have the ability to make good on these threats. We also believe that they need to make an example of states that permit further attacks on Iran.
Commercial Impact
We therefore see a severe risk to civilian infrastructure, including critically, power and desalination plants, in the UAE and/or Kuwait for the duration of ground any operations. The integration of Gulf power infrastructure means that power outages are unlikely initially. However, there is no integrated water network. We advise residents to prepare accordingly.
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