Lebanon: Israel plans for another war

A few days of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah are much more likely than a broad war.

Regional media is full of stories about Israeli planning for another war against Hezbollah and Lebanon. Israeli media is even pressuring the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which has been ineffectively policing the border since 1978. The Israelis are accusing UNIFIL of helping Hezbollah - for its part, Hezbollah accuses UNIFIL of spying for Israel.

Hezbollah’s usefulness to Israel

Having defeated the Shi’a axis (Iran, Syria, Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah), Israel is now facing the Sunnis, who are far more numerous and have greater strategic depth. Today, the Sunnis willing to fight Israel are led by the Muslim Brotherhood - that is, Turkey and Qatar, with Syria’s Ahemd al Shara’ (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) as a junior and dependent partner.

In this configuration, a capable but managed Hezbollah in Lebanon - subject to constant Israeli surveillance, and suffering from massive intelligence penetration - is a bulwark against Sunni expansion. This is Israel’s policy in Syria, where it is backing the Druse and the SDF, in partnership with the USA, to stop Turkey from expanding via Syria’s Sunnis. Defeating Hezbollah decisively will allow the Sunnis to expand, and Lebanon’s Christians and their businesses would work with the Sunnis, making Lebanon into an economic competitor of Israel in financial services (yes, despite the ongoing collapse of Lebanon’s banking sector), engineering and design, media, and other services.

On the other hand, keeping Hezbollah implies continuous sanctions and political risks, paralysing Lebanon and containing Sunni influence in Syria, helping fragment the region.

The broader picture

However, Hezbollah is not an independent actor. It is an extension of Iranian influence. Iran is transitioning from pan-Islamism to nationalism, something which we said would happen right after the 12 Day War between Israel, the US, and Iran in June 2025, and which now Israeli media is repeating.

That said, this transition needs to be “encouraged”. This encouragement consists of maintaining pressure on Iran, including on its most valuable and capable proxy, Hezbollah, and maintaining pressure on the nuclear issue. Israel’s fear is that Iran would use a nuclear umbrella to allow the proxies more game changing capabilities while, due to the nuclear umbrella, Iran itself is protected from the consequences. Therefore, from the Israeli perspective, continued pressure on Hezbollah is required, rather than allowing it to calmly rebuild under its current pan-Islamist, anti-Israel, ideology, while Iran’s nuclear issue remains unresolved and the possibility of the current regime building a nuclear weapon continues.

A Hezbollah-released image of its top military commander, Haytham Ali Tabatabai, aka Sayyid Abu Ali.

Implications for war risks and beyond.

• Israel wants to keep showing Hezbollah that its ideology and beliefs are failed and futile. To this end, it will continue to strike the group. This was highlighted on 23 November 2025, with Israel’s assassination of Abu Ali Tabataba’i, Hezbollah’s seniormost military commander. Israel struck an apartment he was staying in, killing him and several of his associates. This highlighted the sheer magnitude of Israel’s continued intelligence penetration of the group.

• Israel is unlikely to stop the assassination campaign against Hezbollah and its key leaders - these strikes are continuing weekly.

• However, Israel will not attack the Lebanese Army or the Lebanese state - collapsing the state would strengthen Turkey too much.

• As such, the most likely targets for Israel will be: