Lebanon: No resolution in sight

Why Hezbollah cannot disarm.

Commercial topics: Civil unrest, terrorism, cargo, infrastructure, border closures, war.

US envoys are pressuring Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah, something which the legitimate government has no ability - or willingness - to do. This pressure comes ahead of Lebanon’s May 2026 Parliamentary elections.

While some Christians, Sunnis, and Druse vehemently oppose Hezbollah maintaining its arms, others see a benefit in them: they are to be used to prevent the expansion of Syrian influence into Lebanon, given the Western-backed jihadi takeover of that state.

For Lebanon, there are several major fears:

1. The settlement of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, and perhaps, an increase in their numbers as Israel seeks to ethnically cleanse Gaza.

2. The settlement and status of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, which the new Damascus authorities, like their predecessors, refuse to repatriate.

3. Syrian expansionism in Lebanon. Typically, whenever there were Saudi-Syrian-American agreements, they culminated in Syrian authorities being given free rein over Lebanon.

4. The resumption of the Israel-Hezbollah war. This is unlikely, as Israel is able to continue its operations against Hezbollah without the group so far retaliating. However, at some point, Hezbollah will likely have to retaliate.

5. The fear that Hezbollah would end up fighting a two-front war, with Israeli airstrikes complementing Syrian jihadis’ ground attacks.

6. The fear that Sunnis in Lebanon would try to gain support from Syrian authorities. This has already begun, with Sunni religious authorities meeting with the new Syrian president to coordinate a pressure campaign to force the release of Sunni Islamist jihadis in Lebanese prisons, some of whom have not been put on trial yet despite years of detention.

7. The fear that refusing to normalise with Israel would lead to new sanctions, and to Gulf Arab states refusing to fund reconstruction in Lebanon.

Screengrab from a video of the most recent Israeli strike in south Lebanon.