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Lebanon: Normalisation or war?
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Lebanon: Normalisation or war?

The Americans are trying to force a peace treaty between Lebanon and Israel. Meanwhile, Sunni-Shia conflict, and threats from Syria and Israel, risk ripping Lebanon apart.

Firas Modad
Mar 24, 2025
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Lebanon: Normalisation or war?
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Israel launched a series of airstrikes against what it said were Hezbollah positions and personnel on 22 and 23 March. Three rockets were launched from Lebanon on 22 March. Hezbollah denied responsibility, and it is alleged Palestinian factions were responsible.

This was the first time rockets were fired from Lebanon since the ceasefire. By contrast, Israel had engaged in a series of strikes against Lebanon and Hezbollah during that time.

Impact of one of the airstrikes in South Lebanon.

On 15 March, in Lebanon's Tripoli, a majority Sunni city supportive of the new Syrian regime, local militiamen seized a truck as it was carrying Iranian food aid to the Beddawi Palestinian refugee camp, where Iran has some supportive gunmen. On 17 March, the ringleader of the truck seizure was ambushed by armed men from Beddawi, but he survived. On the 18th, there was an exchange of gunfire between Beddawi camp and Wadi el-Nahleh, an adjacent Sunni area supportive of the Syrian regime.

This is part of a series of localised fights between Iran and Hezbollah's local allies - both Sunni and Shi’a - and Tripoli’s Sunni militias, some of whose members have fought Iran’s allies in Syria and Lebanon.


The gentleman who seized Iranian aid going to Beddawi camp.

For its part, the Lebanese Army - the only force that can handle these local conflicts - is overstretched. The Army is increasing its deployment to South Lebanon in line with the ceasefire with Israel, and to police the eastern border with Syria.

Along the Syrian border, near Hermel, on the ‘Assi River, there were several instances in the past few weeks of limited fighting using rocket launchers, anti-tank weapons, heavy machine guns, and personal arms. This involved local Shi’a clans supportive of Hezbollah (rather than the group itself), and Syrian militias affiliated with the new regime. Lebanese media claim that Syrian authorities have sent foreign jihadi militias to the Lebanese border area, a clear threat to the region’s primarily Shi’a and Christian populations.

The Next Sykes Picot

The Next Sykes Picot

Firas Modad
·
Mar 10
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Meanwhile, the US is increasing pressure for Lebanon to normalise ties with Israel, using the country’s need for aid as an incentive. There are reports of diplomatic teams meeting to resolve outstanding issues.

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