Libya: return to fighting?
The developments that threaten to further upend the oil market
On 10 August, unknown assassins targeted Eastern Libya’s military intelligence chief, Brigadier Fawzi al-Mansouri, using a sticky bomb attached to his car which detonated after he exited a mosque. The assassination fits the pattern used by jihadi groups, but these are not the only suspects.
Meanwhile, in the west of Libya, in Surman, on 4 August, local media reported that militias in Surman, near Zawiya, had attacked local security forces, leading to a day of fighting with personal weapons, mortars, and RPGs. The fighting also led to the escape of a prisoners, and to the brief closure of the road connecting Zawiya to Tripoli.
On 10 August, at least two drones hit the Zawiya refinery on 11 August, striking a gasoline storage tank that held 4.5 million litres of fuel. Another strike reportedly targeted a local electricity transmission station, also in Zawiya, on 12 August. Activity at the refinery reportedly continued afterwards. The refinery attack was attributed by a Libyan journalist to an armed group connected to the interior minister. Apparently, some of the leaders of the militia in question had been sanctioned by the UNSC, leading to this demonstration of power.
The fighting in the West followed a brief wave of unrest in July in Souq al-Juma, in Tripoli, over electricity shortages. The unrest ended after a deal was reached between the government and the Rada’ Units, one of the region’s myriad militias.
Last but not least, Central Bank of Libya Governor Naji Issa resigned his post. Although his resignation has not yet been accepted, his reasoning appears to be that the government refuses to control spending, leading to the deterioration of the Libyan dinar on the black market.
Furthermore, the division between the east’s parliament and the west’s government is deepening, with oil being sold through a company called Arkenu, allegedly owned by Libyan National Army Commander Khalifa Haftar’s son and heir apparent, Saddam Haftar.
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