Maduro's capture: Special Forces replace gunboats
Everything you need to know about this old, new world.
On 3 January, American Delta Force operators captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from his fortified compound, after wiping out his security detail and before he could reach a steel saferoom. Within 24 hours, Maduro was then paraded in the streets of New York as he was taken to face trial on charges of drug and weapons smuggling, corruption, and narco-terrorism at the Southern District of New York federal court, based on indictments issued in 2020. It appears somewhat likely that, despite her public defiance, Maduro was extracted with the support of his own Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, who has assumed Maduro’s powers. She has invited the Americans to “collaborate on an agenda of cooperation oriented towards shared development”. President Donald Trump has said that the USA will govern Venezuela, but it’s not clear how that works. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said vessels from Venezuela, including sanctioned oil shipments and drugs, will continue to be targeted.
American objectives and messages
By capturing Maduro, the Americans are sending a litany of messages:
The capture of Maduro makes it clear to Latin American countries that the Chinese, international law, or even their own security services cannot protect them. By seizing Maduro, the Americans have reminded every Latin American leader of just how much they could personally lose if they defy the USA. From the American perspective, this will help compel remaining leaders in Venezuela to cooperate, especially given that Maduro, under interrogation, will likely reveal all manner of secrets. The message to the world, and to Venezuelans, is that there is only American law, based on American power. The American Empire is supreme, not the “rules based international order” or “international law”.
The Americans are in an imperial consolidation phase, requiring their “allies” and those within their sphere of influence, or, more accurately, their vassals, to obey without question. This is the primary reason for the tariff war on the EU, and the New Security Strategy’s prioritisation of Latin America and the expulsion of Chinese interests from that region, as well as its criticism of Europe.
The Americans are keen to send the message that what happened to Maduro can happen to Mexican President Gloria Sheinbaum, who is almost certainly deeply connected to Mexican cartels, or Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who appears similarly tied to Colombian cocaine smugglers, or to the Cuban leadership. The aim is to firmly anchor Latin America in the USA’s sphere of influence, with no presence for rival Great Powers.
Just as Maduro’s vice president may have played a role in his capture, internal challengers from within targeted Latin American regimes can easily cooperate with the Americans to further their own positions. This too is part of the threat.
Critically, the same dynamic applies to the EU and Britain. With the USA sanctioning British and EU personnel responsible for “fighting disinformation”, that is, censorship, by denying them visas, the USA has climbed the first rung of an escalation ladder, which, if the EU and Britain do not cooperate, may lead to stricter sanctions, criminal charges, and arrests. In essence, the Americans are saying to all those within their sphere of influence that dissent will not be tolerated.
US domestic considerations
There is debate over whether capturing Maduro is a true America First policy, or a return to neocon regime change activities. This is misguided. As we have long argued, Trump is after competent imperialism: the ability to pursue American interests without either major nation building projects nor the constraints of “international law”. The Americans require Venezuelan natural resources, and the expulsion of Chinese influence from the Western Hemisphere. So, they acted, on the flimsiest of legal pretexts.
However, the key issue when it comes to appeasing Trump’s base is to show the same decisiveness in the face of domestic opponents, who are a much bigger threat to America than Venezuela. The exposure of massive fraud by the Somali community in Minnesota, very likely linked to failed vice presidential candidate and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, places pressure on Trump to both, accelerate mass deportations, including through citizenship revocation, and to go after his domestic rivals just as they went after him. Trump’s coalition demands the same sort of firm action at home as he has taken abroad. Regardless of legal niceties.
