Rapid Fire Update

America's government shutdown, the war on the American right, Syria's Shara' in the White House, Iraqi elections, and continuing Ukrainian collapse

Sometimes, there are too many things we could cover. So we opt for a rapid fire summary and invite our readers to reach out with specific questions.

Government shutdown

There’s a deal on the horizon that would hold out until 30 January, while negotiations continue quietly. This is likely intended to go through the holiday season with a functioning government, preventing images of bare pantries in American homes over Thanksgiving and Christmas. The holiday season also allows backroom deals with less scrutiny. The Democrats were afraid that Trump would end the filibuster and impose his agenda, or that he would trim down the state (thereby weakening unions) to bring down the deficit. They also got their base fired up and convinced them they were fighting the administration.

Trump, for his part, seemed unwilling to break the system. This is bad news: the size of America’s deficit requires breaking the system by removing large numbers of federal employees and reducing the state’s role in parts of the economy. However, America’s two-year election cycle requires the avoidance of short-term pain for long-term gain, making problems endemic.

American right-wing civil war and Iran

The conflict between interventionists and America First continues. Trump and Vance are stuck. They cannot move from the centre, that is, the existing foreign policy consensus that begat Middle Eastern interventions and united Russia, China, and Iran. Even though their entire campaign was predicated on rejecting this consensus. Our view is that Iran will do nothing to provoke Trump, while Israel wants his support to finish off the Islamic Republic regime. But, again, Trump’s domestic constraints limit his ability to do this. Trump needs to avoid another war with Iran to keep his coalition together and prevent the Democrats from surging in the mid-terms or in 2028.

Syria’s Shara’ in the White House

Former Islamic State in Iraq emir, al-Qaeda local commander, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader was in the White House. This confirms our view that the Americans want him to consolidate over Syria.