Russian drones in Poland

Did Trump's brinkmanship invite a response in kind from Putin? And did Putin coordinate this with his partners?

Commercial Summary: As Putin tests Trump, risks in Poland, the Baltics, and Romania increase, but also most likely in Taiwan and the Philippines.

Five to thirteen drones entered Polish airspace during the night of 9/10 September 2025. Polish authorities reported that these are Russian drones, and that some were shot down. There are also claims that they were escorted into Polish airspace by Belorussian jets, and that they loitered in Moldovan airspace. We are unable to verify any of these details independently.

A Geran 2 drone in Sumy in 2024.

There are two possible explanations:

1. This could be a false flag by Ukraine, driven by its increasingly desperate position.

2. More plausibly, in our view, the Russians are testing NATO’s responses, as they prepare for larger offensives in Ukraine and to try to cut Ukraine’s supply lines.

If, as we think is likely, it is the latter, then the Russians will be watching the technical and tactical details of the interceptions, and will prepare bigger strike packages, as they test American President Donald Trump and measure his reactions.

Russia is warning, using this drone incursion, that future weapons transfer to Ukraine may be interdicted in Polish territory, and that airbases in the region are vulnerable to strikes.

If we are right, and this is not a false flag, then we would expect in the coming weeks and months similar incidents in the airspace of the Baltic countries, or simultaneous drone incursions in the Baltics and Poland, in order to test NATO’s responses and its retaliation. Already, there was one drone reported in Lithuanian airspace in July 2025, and another in Latvia in September 2024.

Commercial Implications: