Russia's difficult position in Ukraine
Russian advances on major urban centres will create a massive refugee crisis, while also forcing Russia to escalate.
Commercial summary: Russia is advancing, but its position is difficult. It can neither back down nor win. Mobilisation is a possibility, but guarantees immense casualties. Russia will therefore likely escalate against NATO.
Russia’s pattern for the Ukraine war has been broadly consistent:
Launch slow offensives in Spring
Accelerate the rate of advances in Summer
Consolidate and clean up in Autumn, while accelerating attacks on infrastructure
Destroy infrastructure in winter to push the civilian population out
While this pattern is consistent, a major change is underway. Specifically, Russia is trying to collapse power, transport, and gas station infrastructures in the areas around the urban conglomerations of Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov, Zaporozhzhia, and Dnipro. The aim is to push the citizens out and trigger a humanitarian crisis, and to disrupt Ukrainian military logistics. This is proceeding relatively successfully given Russia’s superiority in missiles and drones, despite immense gaps in its own air defence. This will push Russia to double down on missile and drone warfare, including against NATO.
Battlefield update
Donbass
The Russians have claimed that they captured Kostyantynivka, the southernmost of the fortress belt of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka, which is Ukraine’s most formidable line of defence. This line has forced both sides to concentrate their forces in the Donbass, limiting Russia’s ability launch major attacks elsewhere, as that front alone may have up to 500,000 out of the total 700,000 to 800,000 Russian troops in Ukraine. The fall of Kostyantynivka, and the imminent fall of Lyman, allows Russia to attack the other two fortress cities from the south and north, whereas that defenses of that area are mainly oriented towards the east. In 2027, Russia will be in a position to hammer this defensive belt and probably to take it completely. That then changes the dynamics of the battle, in two ways. First, Ukraine doesn’t have major towns behind these cities where it can concentrate large forces and provide them with adequate logistics. This, in turn, may permit Russia to reintroduce armour into the battle, accelerating Russian gains. However, what this does not change is the manpower shortage facing Russia, and the difficulty it faces in launching major offensives against urban areas with a million or more inhabitants.
