Strategic Risk Brief
Risks to Azeri and other energy assets, a brief overview of damaged assets, likely next targets, and how the US may end up with ballistic Hashashin.
Executive Summary:
In this piece, we discuss four scenarios. The key commercial impacts of these scenarios can be:
Iran becoming the leading country in OPEC, given its ability to threaten all Gulf energy production.
Iran turning into a failed state, with militants regularly attacking shipping, energy, power, and other assets to extort their neighbours.
An inconclusive war drawing Turkey and Iran into conflict, or Turkey and Israel.
A nuclear exchange that normalises the use of nuclear weapons.
Key events:
On 7 March, Iranian president apologised for targeting Gulf states, and said that the ruling council has ordered the halting of military attacks against states whose territories are not being used to target Iran. Following another Iranian attack on Dubai International Airport, however, Emirates Airlines halted all flights from Dubai.
On 7 March, American media carried a report claiming that the Houthi were ready to enter the war.
On 6 March, Trump declared that he expects from Iran unconditional surrender. American officials have not ruled out deploying combat troops, though there is clearly a “leaking war” going on between administration officials to blame one another.
On 5 March, the rate of fire of Iranian missiles and drones dropped precipitously. However, this escalated again in the following two days, with new missiles brought online.
On 4 March, OSINT media reported an Azeri military build-up along the border with Iran. Furthermore, Kurdish forces from Iraq into Iranian territory are also being deployed.
Also on 4 March, the Iranians had lobbed a missile into Turkey, which was intercepted. This most likely targeted infrastructure linked to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline (BTC). There were also unconfirmed reports of three drone attacks against the BTC.
America’s strategy: break the state
Throughout this war, the Israelis and Americans have been targeting border security in Iran, as well as police, internal security, and all basic state structures. The objective is to simply collapse the state as state, not just the regime.
