Strategic Risk Brief: Finding an Exit
Declaring victory is easy, but that would solve nothing, and may not even be possible.
Recent statements from American President Donald Trump suggest that he is interested in ending the war . He has claimed that all the objectives are complete, and that the war is very much ahead of schedule. Furthermore, Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting that he is seeking Russian mediation to end the conflict. The Iranians claim that they have received multiple offers for a ceasefire, and that they insisted that the ceasefire begin with an unconditional American halting of hostilities. Some rumours claim that the Iranians demanded an American withdrawal from the region. Our view, however, is that despite their public rhetoric, the Iranians need the war to end quickly. A state cannot indefinitely fight as an insurgency and survive. Key Iranian assets are being destroyed, and these are needed for the regime to maintain its grip on power.
The war’s objectives
That said, despite the immense damage to Iran, its leadership, and its infrastructure, the Americans and Israelis have not achieved any of their declared objectives. Iranian missile strikes on Tel Aviv are penetrating the Israeli layered air defence systems regularly. Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is still there. Iran is still able to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, despite massive losses to its naval assets. The world economy is reeling without the Houthi even entering the war yet. And the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei’s son, remains in power. The regime has not changed.
If the Islamic revolutionary regime remains in power, even under another Supreme Leader after Mojtaba is killed, it will be more likely than ever to pursue a nuclear weapon, double down on its ballistic missile programme, and try to strengthen its proxies further. Iranian ties to Shi’a groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen are organic, and predate Khomeini’s revolution by centuries. Iran will try everything it can to position itself to deliver a much stronger first or early strike against Israel in the next war, since Israel and the Americans have made it obvious that they may strike Iran at will. Arguably, the regime has become more hard-line on security issues.
Iran’s response
Critically, the madman theory that Trump is operating under by its very nature invites challenge from those who claim to be even madder. If there is a ceasefire with the regime surviving, Iran would have shown that it is the bigger madman, encouraging others to try to do the same, but also requiring it to be even madder still in the next round. For the Iranians, closing the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump warned them against, is non-negotiable. Already, attacks on shipping have resumed as a response to Trump’s threats. The Iranians need to cause enough damage to gain deterrence, which is why they may need the war to continue, regardless of the cost. They cannot have a situation in which they suffer a yearly bombing campaign.
A new balance of power
Moreover, American bases in the Middle East, especially radars, have been heavily damaged. Gulf allies realise that the Americans cannot protect them from Iran, making Iran now the most influential state in OPEC: countries that refuse to cut output in favour of Iran can expect a drone in an oil field or an airport.
