Strikes on Venezuela?

The US is preparing for an escalation against Maduro targeting energy and narcotics

The US has engaged in a naval and aerial build-up in the vicinity of Venezuela. So far, there have been no direct attacks. However, the USA did sink a boat that it said was carrying drugs headed to its borders. In our view, the purpose of this strike was to rally public support for further action against the drug dealers, and to test the legal limits associated with such escalation. Given the overwhelming support on the right for further strikes, we think that the Americans will go ahead with further actions against Venezuela.

The Americans have already designated the cartels as terrorist organisations - permitting further military action. American Secretary of State Marco Rubio has described Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro as a fugitive from American justice.

To understand how the Americans will escalate further, it is worth recalling that the Americans are not operating based on modern legal principles: rather, they are relying on their sovereign right to defend their society (regardless of legalistic details), the popularity of strikes on cartels, the Monroe Doctrine, and claims that the Founding Fathers would have likely not just attacked drug traffickers and treated them as pirates, but also issued letters of marque and reprisal to allow private individuals to do the same. This mix of emotion and grey legal area is an indicator of how the American intervention against Venezuela will unfold. It will not be a clear declaration of war, with the stated aim of regime change, but rather a series of strikes with limited objectives and with implied different messages to different audiences.

Geopolitically, Venezuela is the main base for Iranian, Russian, and Chinese influence in Latin America. The Americans are seeking to consolidate over their empire, which includes Latin America and Europe, as they acknowledge that they are not the only great power in a multipolar world. They are therefore trying to clear out enemy influence from their near abroad. Since a war with Mexico or Canada (where there is immense Chinese influence) is unpalatable, striking Venezuela serves the purposes of reminding Mexico and Canada that the Americans are serious, showing the Chinese that America can blockade Latin American exports to China, rather than just Chinese ports, warning Mexican cartels that the same may happen to them, and gaining popular domestic support by destroying a major part of the drug empire ruining the lives of America’s youth.

We believe that the Americans will use Israeli-style decapitation strikes intended to take out a number of top Venezuelan military and civilian leaders, on the pretext that they are involved in the drug trade. This would be the most effective way of sending a message to Mexican officials who are also involved with the cartels.

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