Syria: Shara' wins
The lifting of American sanctions paves the way for complete consolidation by the new regime.
President Donald Trump announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria on 13 May, while speaking in Riyadh. Although these have a congressional mandate, in reality, all sanctions implementation relies on Executive Orders, meaning that the president can hollow out the sanctions framework and enable business across the board (except for American investments in Syria directly). Trump then met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Shara’, with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman attending and Turkish President Recept Tayyip Erdogan joining by video conference.
This is a major boon for Saudi Arabia and Turkey, as well as the Iraqi government. All three can now freely work with Shara’, with no fear of American sanctions, as can countries further afield. Critically, the suspension of sanction was not tied to normalisation with Israel, delivering another blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli government.
Implications:
Trump’s meeting with Shara’ ends the prospect of the partition of Syria.
Various communities like the Alawites, the Druse, and the Kurds will be made fully subject to Damascus, with local politics revolving around gaining favourable access to the Syrian state, controlled by Shara’.
With access to foreign investment, control over the security forces, and the threat of financial sactions against dissidents, Shara’ can force the jihadis who got him to power to moderate, and can consolidate his control over them.
Foreign companies wishing to do business with Syria will be able to do so. Pharmaceuticals, FMCG, construction, and energy will likely be priority sectors for the Syrian state.
Syria will not become democratic, but, rather, it will forge a different political system that is authoritarian but somewhat participatory.
The Americans will likely withdraw from Syria within the coming year, as the PKK deal with Erdogan is finalised. Turkish companies stand to benefit enormously from access to Syrian oil fields, phosphates, and agriculture.
Lebanese and Jordanian transporters and distributors, as well as logistics companies, also stand to make significant gains.
The normalisation of the Syrian state will facilitate the disarmament of Hezbollah and the normalisation of Lebanon.
Eventually, like his predecessors, Shara’ will develop his own ambitions for Lebanon.
Syria will almost certainly not transition to a democratic system, nor is there any reason for it to do so.
Mea culpa: after the pogroms against the Alawites and the attacks on the Druse, we expected sanctions to remain due to State Department hawkishness. Rather, it was the other way around: removing sanctions makes it easier to influence Shara’ and help him consolidate over the worst elements in his coalition, even if there is a price to pay for defiant minorities. We apologise for our mistake.
I remain horrified by what has occurred in Syria and staggered that a man like Julani is now being feted by western politicians. Naivety on my part, obviously. May God help the people of Syria remain safe from these monsters.
He's a winner until the USA decides it doesn't need him anymore...like Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi.?....Well see. Only time will tell.