The Coming EU Crisis
France and Germany are about to change direction, which would lead to an existential crisis with Brussels
The French and German political systems are falling apart at a time when practically all European countries refuse to take any fiscally responsible measures to reduce their debts and address the pensions timebomb or review their strategic choices. In this piece, we address France and Germany’s coming elections, and the prospects for the EU.
Merz’ woes
Barely a year after taking office, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been forced into a reshuffle due to chaos within his own party, the CDU, which governs in coalition with the leftist Social Democratic Party (SDP). Not only is his party turning on him, but the coalition with the SPD looks increasingly untenable.
Merz’ key ally, Jens Spahn, was forced to resign after purchasing a baby through surrogacy, in contravention of German law, which strictly forbids both commercial and altruistic surrogacy. Merz sought to get out of this mess through a cabinet reshuffle, which is rare in Germany - ministers and chancellors typically remain in place for years.
However, at 4 am on the morning of the reshuffle, Merz’ candidate for the Ministry of Transport - the German transport system is falling apart due to rising demand, insecurity, (both driven by immigration) and under-investment (due to high welfare spending and the Ukraine War) - withdrew his acceptance of the job, as he was entirely unqualified for it, something which he only belatedly realised. This turned the reshuffle announcement into a dud, causing a major political embarrassment for Merz.
The failed reshuffle has further reduced Merz’ credibility within the CDU, which is set to lose the state elections of Saxony-Anhalt (a CDU stronghold) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (currently run by the SPD) to the Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD is labelled far right due to its opposition to immigration, however, its leader is a lesbian woman in a partnership with a Sri Lankan. Hardly the stuff of Hugo Boss wearing, goosestepping, blood and soil nationalism.
If the AfD wins these state elections, which seems probable (even if it fails to form governments) Merz will be in the same position that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer was in after his Labour Party disastrously lost the local elections in May 2026.
After Merz resigns
However, the problem is that Merz’ resignation would change nothing. The fundamental issues facing Germany - and, indeed, most of the West - are the same, and the ruling classes’ dogma prevents their articulation, let alone sensible policies to address them. These issues are, briefly:
The disastrous impact of the Russia-Ukraine War, and Germany’s role in it. The war has cut off Germany’s access to cheap Russian gas due to the Americans blowing up Nordstream and due to EU and US sanctions. This gas will not return unless Germany reformulates its entire relationship with Russia. The drive for so-called renewables (solar panels and wind turbines are neither renewable nor “green”), compounds this energy shortage and raises costs to German businesses. Europe is no longer able to project power, but it imagines itself to be the moral arbiter of the world.
The catastrophic impact of immigration. Almost half the German cash welfare budget goes to foreigners, a morally, fiscally, and politically untenable position. Furthermore, the level of migrant crime is dramatically higher than their share of the population. The corrosive cultural impact is also severe, as Muslim, Hindu, and African cultures are incompatible with Christian or modern secular culture.
Untenable welfare spending leading to high debts - total social spending for all residents accounts for around 31% of German GDP. The post-war welfare state has reached the end of the line. Pensions discourage births, welfare discourages employment, and free healthcare is a bottomless money pit. (We tend to forget that the welfare state is a modern, new-fangled experiment). However, voters are unable to stomach the required reforms. If pension liabilities are included, Germany’s debt to GDP ratio, like most other Western economies, shoots up to 400%-500% of GDP.
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