The limits of the madman theory
Geopolitics untethered from reason produces disaster.
American President Donald Trump threatened to kill the Persian civilisation today.
Trump clarified his threats to say that every bridge and power plant will be destroyed, saying that he did not want to do that, and offering to rebuild Iran. He then said that the destruction he would inflict would take one hundred years to rebuild.
Iran responded by halting all diplomatic engagement with the United States. Iranian citizens are organising human chains near critical infrastructure.
The limits of madness
The trouble with the madman theory is this:
First, there is always a bigger madman.
Second, it invites pre-emptive strikes and encourages nuclear proliferation.
Third, it encourages stubbornness - if the other party is mad, there is no point in negotiating with them as though they were rational.
Fourth, someone who pretends to be a madman must do mad things, or be dismissed as a loud buffoon.
Playing the madman against a stubborn foe makes extreme escalation eventually inevitable. And Iran is nothing if not stubborn. Iran is betting that, like the Taliban and the North Vietnamese, it can force the Americans out before rebuilding, and is willing to take the cost. Unlike the North Vietnamese and the Taliban, Iran remains able to destroy Gulf energy infrastructure just as permanently as its own infrastructure is destroyed, plunging the global economy into a generation of chaos and shortages.
Two madmen have met. The result is, predictably, more madness.
Trump has delayed his deadlines to destroy Iranian power infrastructure three times already. Eventually, he has to either permanently climb down, or do it. And if he does, the consequences will be felt throughout the GCC and perhaps Israel. Russia is reportedly helping Iran identify targets that could disable Israel’s power grid.
Scenarios
This leaves us with three scenarios:
Trump extends his deadline again. Every time he does so, he discourages the Iranians from making concessions. In the meantime, more energy infrastructure is getting destroyed, making the damage to the world economy more permanent.
Trump fulfils his threat. Leading to wider destruction in the region potentially collapsing GCC and Israeli power grids, destroying more energy assets, and roping in the Houthi into the war, maximising economic damage to the world. Iran will likely respond with attacks on airports, ports, desalination plants, power stations, and more, throughout the GCC and Israel. The Houthi would be more likely to close Bab Al Mandab. If Trump’s promised devastating attacks fail to achieve his political objective (whatever that may be), he will again be forced to buy time, escalate further, or back down.
Trump fully backs down, leaving Iran in control of Hormuz, and with the ability to “tax” every exported barrel of oil and refined products from the Gulf, collapsing American security guarantees in the region, and bringing about a redrawing of the region’s map. Countries like Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain may no longer exist if their security is not guaranteed by the United States. Iran would become the hegemon of the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia sandwiched between it and the Houthi.