The Massacre of the Druse and Implications for Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon

Syria's Islamists' taste for blood will not be abated, and Israel can do little about it. Jordan is becoming increasingly unstable.

Commercial focus: Lebanon and Syria terrorism and sanctions risks. War. Non-payment risks. Jordan unrest and instability risk.

Editor’s note: the author is originally Druse and converted to Christianity. This obviously creates biases, which we try with all the human power at our disposal to put aside. If you find any, point them out, and we will engage with you in good faith.

At least 1,000 combatants and civilians have been killed over the course of a few days of fighting between Druse self-protection militias in the Syrian province of Suwayda on one side and Syrian government forces and tribal Syrian forces on the other. Israeli senior leaders had promised publicly to protect the Druse, both to keep Syrian government forces away from Israel and to appease Israeli Druse, who regularly serve in the Israeli military. Some of the Syrian Druse armed factions (including supporters of one of the three leading clerics of the sect in Syria) had bet that Israel would back its promises with significant support against the Sunni majority and prevent their defeat.

Israel did indeed briefly intervene in this fighting with some airstrikes against Syrian government forces, but did not continue with a wider close air support campaign that would have halted the advances of Syrian government forces and their tribal allies.

Videos from the area show gruesome treatment of civilians and combatants, with summary executions, the killing of civilians, looting, arson, and the repeated humiliation of elderly Druse clerics. The Druse were evidently on the losing side, and, therefore, on the receiving side of most of the atrocities.

Syrian Druse fighters in Suwayda.

As of the time of this writing, there is a ceasefire in place (the fourth one to be announced, with the previous three not holding). Tribal militias have reportedly withdrawn (this has been reported multiple times but did not happen). The Syrian state will introduce state security and other institutions into the region, but these security forces were themselves seen participating in executions. Druse forces remain in the region, but it is obvious that they cannot stand up to the Syrian state or its allies. This represents a defeat for the Druse.

Implications:

• The USA has lost the will to police the Middle East, as evidenced by the Obama presidency, Trump’s America First policy, and, especially, Trump’s speech in Riyadh, and his envoy, Tom Barrack, saying that Lebanon may become part of Greater Syria if it does not reach an agreement on how to disarm Hezbollah (a statement which he eventually tried to partly walk back).