Modad Geopolitics

Modad Geopolitics

The pointlessness of negotiations

Iran-US negotiations are not going anywhere

Firas Modad
May 18, 2026
∙ Paid

There are regular media updates on the status of Iran-US talks intended to resolve the war. There are certain realities which must be kept in mind:

  1. The Americans retain the option of returning to the war at any time, and Trump is unpredictable. However:

    1. Returning to the war would guarantee the destruction of a significant portion of vital power, water, and energy infrastructure in the GCC.

    2. There is no politically viable American pathway to victory in the coming year at least, on the nuclear issue, on regime change, or on dismantling Iran’s missile programme. The Americans cannot restart the draft, nor can they justify using nuclear weapons on Iranian underground missile cities or the Iranian nuclear programme, even though these are theoretically options available to Trump.

    3. The American stockpile of critical munitions, including missile interceptors, stand-off munitions, and cruise missiles has been severely depleted, to the extent that threatens the ability of the USA to fight other wars.

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