The US-Iran War is likely to resume tonight
The Iranians refuse to negotiate on America's terms
Commercial topics: Impact on Iraq and the Gulf, infrastructure, energy, shipping, Iraqi non-payment risks.
The Iranian delegation for talks with the USA has yet to arrive in Islamabad, Pakistan. The Iranian Supreme Leader’s representative to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said that Iran will not negotiate on America’s terms.
Iran’s reasoning
For some in Iran, there is no reason to negotiate with the USA to begin with - the Americans have twice used talks as cover for launch strikes. Additionally, the Americans maintained the blockade on Iran even after Iran said it was willing to re-open Hormuz (although Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi likely deliberately left out that the Iranians were still intending to charge passage fees). From Iran’s perspective, this means that the Americans want to continue the war. Moreover, American demands, in Iran’s view, remain very unrealistic. Therefore, another round with the USA may be necessary to convince the Americans to back down.
America’s reasoning
From America’s perspective, an agreement with Iran would confirm that Iran is the regional hegemon, and that the Americans are unable to protect GCC states from Iran. The US presence in the region would be useless. Israel would grow more isolated and would need to be severely restrained. Turkey would see that Iran’s strategy was successful and would mimic it, as would other middle powers.
Additionally, Trump has no choice but to try to win or prolong the war. He has halted mass deportations and decided to allow more visa routes for employers. The Supreme Court thwarted his tariff policy. He is not pursuing the Democrats forcefully to permanently weaken them. He had to be forced to release the Epstein files, having initially falsely claimed that they’re a hoax, and that there was nothing there.
