Trump decides to delay
Rather than risk further escalation, Trump chose to back down
American President Donald Trump had a choice between delay, making a deal, and escalation. As we have previously said, making a deal would confirm Iran as a regional hegemon. Rather than escalate as we expected, Trump has chosen to buy time. He unilaterally extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, while keeping Hormuz closed. As occurred with the original ceasefire, he attributed this to a request from Pakistan. It had been revealed that the original ceasefire request from Pakistan had been drafted by the Americans, and we do not believe that in this case it was Pakistan’s request that led to the ceasefire’s extension.
Trump’s reasoning
Trump likely saw that the first forty days of war could not prevent Iran from retaliating. Shortages in critical ammunition stockpiles likely also convinced him to delay. Now, he’s hoping to create a situation of continuous pressure on energy markets and reap rewards from that for the USA, without continuing the military conflict openly.
For Trump, America benefits from this energy disruption, as it forces more investments in the USA, which remains the most energy secure industrial country in the world. This aids his re-industrialisation agenda, as we discussed in our earlier piece.
