Trump is stuck
And resuming the war won't make him any less stuck, nor will Xi give him any concessions.
Commercial topics: A war risks being longer and more damaging; Trump’s options; Iranian intransigence.
As we have said, it is evident that American President Donald Trump is not keen to return to war. There have been exchanges of fire between the Americans and Iranians that technically violate the ceasefire. However, Trump did not use that to return to the conflict, even though he could have sold it to his base as Iran breaking the ceasefire while he merely tried to exercise freedom of navigation. Meaning that he is not eager to go back to war.
Trump is also not getting anything through negotiations. The Iranians are not going to give Trump in talks more than they gave him before the war. He will go to Beijing on 14 and 15 May to negotiate with Chinese President Xi Xinping. Trump, having lost the tariff war against China, will try to use the leverage of closing Hormuz against Xi, only to be told that China has adequate oil reserves, a much better energy mix than Europe, and access to Central Asian and Russian resources, ensuring that it suffers no shortages and that its position is relatively better than that of the rest of Asia or of Europe. Xi will give Trump absolutely nothing to help him extricate himself from the Hormuz swamp. Xi, however, may take various economic concessions from Trump to improve China’s access to American markets. But this will not be a stable arrangement.
