Trump prepares to declare victory
Trump's withdrawal from the war would raise the risk of chaos in the region as it adjusts to Iranian power and the ineffectiveness of American protection.
American President Donald Trump is due to make a major speech about Iran at 9pm EST today, 1 April. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for his part, made a speech declaring that Iran was no longer an existential threat, and that Israel had achieved its objectives.
Trump is pressuring his European allies to go open the Strait of Hormuz themselves, while his Secretary of State says that the administration will reconsider NATO membership, due to NATO’s failure in supporting the American war in Persia. The relationship with Europe has never been worse, as Spain, Italy, and France close their airspaces to the American military.
Meanwhile, the cascading effects of Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz are becoming more evident. Countries are going into lockdowns due to energy shortages, inflation is soaring, and growth is stifled. Trump is faced with a choice between a ground operation and simply walking away, leaving Hormuz to be opened by others.
Tempting as it is to throw a temper tantrum and leave, however, this is not a realistic option, and, if taken, carries all manner of unintended consequences, as we explain below.
Implications
If Trump declares a halt to operations in his speech tonight:
Trump will have lost all leverage over Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programmes: Iran will likely attack the Americans next time they attempt to build up forces in the region to launch a campaign over these issues, preventing the concentration of enough forces to even have a hope of winning.
American bases in the region would have been severely damaged, especially in Kuwait and Bahrain and likely the UAE. Any attempt to rebuild them will probably result in resumed Iranian drone and missile attacks.
Iran will continue to charge ships fees to pass through Hormuz. They may charge American ships extra to humiliate Trump.
