Ukraine's game changing attack

Significant increase in the risk to ports and critical infrastructure in the West, and a breakdown of any prospect for talks.

On 1 June, Ukraine conducted a major attack on Russian airbases in Murmansk, Ryazan, and Irkutsk. These locations are between 500km and 4000km from the Ukrainian border.

The attack involved the use of FPV (first person view) drones that had been brought into Russia over an 18 month period in civilian cargo containers, and were then remotely launched from within Russian territories using civilian trucks whose drivers were not involved in the attacks, and a warehouse.

A Ukrainian drone used in the attack leaving a container on a truck in Russia.

Some reports claim up to 27 Russian nuclear-capable strategic jets were damaged. Others claim that the damage was limited to 5 Tu-95s strategic bombers, 2 Tu-22s heavy bombers, and one An-12 transport jet. The number of strategic (nuclear capable) bombers is limited by the New START Treaty. As such, losing even a handful of these weapons systems will be seen by the Russians as a US or British attempt to alter the strategic balance and weaken Russia’s deterrence capabilities.

Talks between Russia and Ukraine were scheduled for 2 June in Istanbul. The Russians had offered to end the war conditional that they keep the four provinces they have mostly taken, that Ukraine maintain neutrality with written guarantees to that effect from NATO, and that there be no new weapons sent to Ukraine during the ceasefire. Russia insisted that a ceasefire would come into effect only after full terms were agreed.

Ukraine, in response, refused to recognise any Russian gains since 2014 (including Crimea), insisted on its right to join the EU and NATO, and wanted a meeting between Zelensky and Putin. Ukraine seemed to imply that a ceasefire would precede an agreement on final terms. The two sides’ positions are too far from one another, but they need to attempt to negotiate to appease American President Donald Trump.

Implications:

• Ukraine believes it can escalate and draw more Western support, risking a broader regional and perhaps global war. It sees that as a preferable outcome to conceding territory.

• The 1 June attack will convince Russia that it must go for total victory. Simply, the possibility of the US using Ukraine to strike Russia’s nuclear-capable jets is an unacceptable risk.

• This raises the risk of an expansion of the war to include the Baltic states and Poland in coming years, if, contrary to our expectations, the Ukrainian military does not start to crack in the coming 6-12 months.

• Trump faces a choice between allowing this risk to continue - something which he has been loathe to do - or cutting off Ukraine completely, and risking a deeper break with Europe.