Ukraine's threats to Belarus
Prospects for disastrous escalation in Europe
Commercial topics: What Russia learned from Iran; why escalation suits both the Ukrainians and the Russians; and the risk of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky threatened a major attack on Belarus within a week if Belarus does not withdraw Russian equipment that is used in support of Russian operations in Ukraine. The deadline expires in three days.
Zelensky’s logic
Ukrainian forces are facing major setbacks in each of Kupyansk, Zaporozhzhia, and the Donbass, despite very slow Russian progress. Zelensky most likely needs to escalate the situation in order to force Russia to back down, or to impose an acceptable compromise on the Russians by threatening major escalation.
Strategically, forcing Belarus into an open war with Ukraine is certain to lead to much wider escalation: attacks on Belarus would lead Minsk to allow Russia an even freer hand in its territories, paving the way for ground offensives towards Kiev and possible Lviv. Were Kiev to be threatened, European support for Ukraine is certain to increase, or so Zelensky hopes. And attacks on Lviv would raise the risk of Poland entering the war. Moreover, given the Belorussian military’s lack of experience, it would have to be placed under Russian command.
Notably, Russia has said since 2023 that it had placed nuclear weapons in Belarus, precisely to deter such escalation.
Russia’s constraints
Russian forces are advancing, but their progress is extremely slow. Russia’s view, increasingly, is that deterrence against NATO is failing, permitting NATO to escalate against Russia in Ukraine without facing any consequences. Major Ukrainian drone attacks on energy, Moscow, and St Petersburg demonstrate this, from Russia’s perspective.
