Will America exit NATO?

The new American National Security Strategy's implications for Europe.

The United States released its latest National Security Strategy (NSS). The document showed a clear change in strategic thinking: the US will focus on reviving the Monroe Doctrine and on confronting China. Critically, the document says that:

1. Mass immigration is identified as the key threat facing the West, requiring a fundamentally different economic and political model to address its impact so far. This requires the USA to be the dominant force in the Western Hemisphere, both to counter China as well as the cartels, people traffickers, and other potential rivals.

2. “It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine”,

3. Russia needs to resume exports to Europe to strengthen European economies and restore geopolitical stability in Europe. However, European leaders are subverting the democratic process and are rejecting peace. This requires America to back rival parties to the current elites.

4. The USA wants to remove the influence of far left liberalism from Europe to get Europe to address economic decline and mass immigration, so that it can remain an ally and a trade partner.

5. The USA wants Europe to take responsibility for its own defence, with the Americans becoming convenors and supporters, rather than the main defenders. Europe must reduce its dependence on China.

6. The USA wants to deter China from invading Taiwan, but wants South Korea, Japan, and others to play a larger role in this effort.

7. Free trade was a disaster, and re-industrialisation is a top priority for the American government.

8. The USA wants to expel China from Latin America, including key infrastructure and critical supply chains. Indeed, the US is fighting a global war over control of supply chains against China.

9. The document laments past unnecessary wars in the Middle East and commits to not getting drawn in again. It claims that the importance of the Middle East is severely reduced, as its energy dominance is falling, and as Trump has brought peace. Still, the document says that Middle East resources must not fall to a hostile power.

10. Africa matters only as part of a competition for supply chains.

11. No single power must become dominant enough in its region to compete with the United States.

Commercial Impact

• The USA does not recognise, at least in the document, that part of the industrial problem it is facing stems directly from the over-financialisation of the economy. It also does not mention debt as a critical threat, implying that the printing of money will continue, and, along with it, inflation.