Will Lebanon blow up the region?
The key issues that led to the escalation, and America's position on the war.
The Americans immediately stopped the Israeli-Iranian escalation, reflecting our view that they are desperate for the ceasefire to hold. And yet, the Americans resolved nothing.
Iran intervened in the Israel-Hezbollah war to stop the Israelis from bombarding the southern suburb of Beirut (Dahiyeh). Hezbollah and Iran’s fear is that Israel would reapply the Dahiyeh Doctrine, which calls for the severe bombardment of major civilian urban centres in retaliation to attacks on Israeli territory. Currently, the Israelis are flattening entire regions of southern Lebanon, forcing Shi’a civilians to seek refuge in Dahiyeh and elsewhere in Beirut. Similarly flattening Dahiyeh would turn Lebanon uninhabitable for Lebanese Shi’a, as it would displace far more Shi’a Lebanese. After Dahiyeh, the Israelis could then destroy other Shi’a urban centres in the Bekaa and turn the entire Shi’a population to refugees. This is why Iran drew a red line. With at least some urban areas safe, it can continue to back Hezbollah indefinitely.
Israel’s objective, by contrast, was and is to ensure freedom of action in Lebanon, including by turning Shi’a parts of Lebanon into another Gaza. For the Israelis, losing the ability to attack Lebanon would firstly prevent communities in northern Israel from returning to their homes. It would also permit Hezbollah to keep fighting and to survive for another day. The Israelis are seeking the elimination of Hezbollah, even though Israeli military officials sometimes acknowledge that this is unrealistic. The Israelis, however, are in no mood for realism. They are seeking complete victories - Israel went as far as to assassinate a Lebanese brigadier general who was part of the ceasefire coordination mechanism between Israel, the USA, and Lebanon, to signal to Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah that it had little interest in a lasting ceasefire.
Notably, after Iran first attacked Israel, in reaction to Israeli attacks on Dahiyeh, Trump told the Israelis not to respond. Now he is telling Israeli media that he had told Netanyahu that if Netanyahu were to escalate against Iran, Netanyahu would be alone. This is highly significant: Trump has finally put his foot down, accepting the Iranian equation that attacks on Dahiyeh would result in Iranian attacks on Israel. Given the enmity between Iran and the USA, this can only reflect the American assessment that resuming the war is not in America’s interests, confirming our view that the Americans do not want the war. We had thought that the Israelis could drag the Americans into war regardless. We were wrong, and Trump finally stepped in forcefully.
In reaction, the Israelis are escalating their attacks everywhere else in Lebanon. They want to ensure that neither the Americans nor the Iranians can set red lines.
