World War III, by proxy, for now

The Hamas - Israel War is escalating into a proxy war between Russia and China on the one side and the United States on the other.

Just as the US and EU are providing Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel with all their military needs, Russia and China will provide Iran with technology, intelligence and manufacturing capabilities to help it in its confrontation with the United States and its proxy, Israel.

We think of the Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan (potential) conflicts as deeply interlinked, and think of all three as proxies of the United States in its battle against a fragmented Iran-Russia-China Axis. Both sides are asserting imperial claims, the Axis, each in their own region, and the US, globally.

The ongoing Middle East regional war is therefore part of a global conflict to remake the world, not the just region. This conflict will determine whether the United States is a global hegemon, or whether China, Iran and Russia can each be hegemons in their own neighbourhoods.

The stakes are extremely high, as are the risks.

Principals and proxies

Russia fought the Ukraine conflict indirectly for eight years, from 2014 to 2022, using the Luhansk and Donetsk militias. However, as its proxies in the Donbass were no longer able to achieve Russia’s minimum acceptable aims of maintaining Russian influence, keeping Ukraine out of NATO, and preventing a Ukrainian government victory, Russia chose to enter the conflict directly.

This dynamic may be replicated in the Middle East, this time, with the US entering the conflict directly, if Israel were to suffer a significant strategic blow from Iran.

Satellite image of the Nevatim Airbase showing 32 missile impact points, seemingly from intact Iranian warheads. Assuming that Nevatim was targeted by a quarter of the 200 Iranian missiles fired, this would imply a success rate of at least 60%.

Why would the US step in?

The satellite image above- from the Middlebury Institute - shows that 32 missiles struck Nevatim Airbase in Israel during Iran’s 1 October attack. These were seemingly intact warheads, not debris from interceptions.

Assuming that Iran fired a quarter of the 200 missiles at Nevatim, this would imply that 60% of the Iranian missiles penetrated the Israeli air defence system. A quarter is a reasonable assumption, given the importance of Nevatim, and given that the alerts were all over Israel. We do not have an exact figure of how many missiles targeted each location.

If these assumptions are close to reality, this would be very dangerous for Israel. Especially if less than 50 missiles targeted Nevatim. We note that not all 32 impacts hit important locations- airbases have plenty of empty, open spaces. However, oil refineries, industrial zones, commercial ports, and cities, have far less.

Note that Nevatim hosts Israel's F-35I jets, Israel’s most advanced, and the backbone of the Israeli air force. As such, it would have been the top priority for Israeli air defence. And yet it is reasonable to assume a 60% penetration rate. This implies a much, much higher risk to second priority targets.

We therefore believe that Iran's claim that 80%-90% of its missiles penetrated Israel's air defence, while perhaps exaggerated, is more credible than Israel's claim that the damage was minimal. We note that, if Iran wanted to fire a thousand missiles at once, or in tightly timed salvoes, the penetration rate would be higher, especially against second priority targets.

Israel has two civilian airports, a dozen or so power stations, and four ports. It has no strategic depth. Its vulnerability to successful missile attacks from Iran is quite high.

Haifa Port and the nearby airport, power station, refinery, chemical plants, and industrial zone are likely to be a top target in future Iranian strikes.

That also means that all of Israel's belligerence against Iran is now intended to force the US into the war: normally, a country that is shown to be extremely vulnerable to the destruction of its infrastructure would reconsider and seek compromises. Israel has no such option, given that a defeat against Hamas and Hezbollah, with Iran threatening to flatten its infrastructure, is an existential threat to the state. Well-off Israelis would not want to remain in a country that is that vulnerable. While some religious fanatics would want to remain regardless, they are not the ones contributing the most to economic growth and scientific development. They are not the ones most willing to do the fighting.

Therefore, if Israel conducts a major strike against Iran, and Iran, as it has publicly promised, retaliates even more forcefully and against infrastructure targets, Israel would be courting a major defeat. This is when the US would step in. This scenarios is increasingly likely, perhaps even ahead of the US elections, forcing whoever wins the election into a war.

Strategically, for the US, it cannot give up on its role in the Middle East. The US is a naval power - if Iran becomes the dominant player in the Red Sea and the East Mediterranean (in partnership with Russia), then the US is no longer able to interfere freely in Europe, the Black Sea and the Middle East. At that point it becomes merely a very large regional power, not a global superpower. The US is defending its own global hegemonic position, not just Israel. We therefore believe that the Pentagon is willing to escalate this conflict, and has given permission for Israel to escalate.

Global Implications

If the US were to intervene to rescue Israel, two things would happen. First, Iran may attempt an oil blockade against the West. This may occur either unilaterally, with Iran using force against shipping and energy infrastructure. Alternatively, GCC states, fearing Iranian attacks, may willingly participate and cut off oil sales to Europe and the US.

China would be severely impacted by a spike in oil prices. However, given that there is an ongoing war, in which Russia and China are allies, Russia would choose to supply China as much as it can. Especially if China were to take advantage of the US’ involvement in the Middle East to escalate militarily in Taiwan.

At that point, all three New Axis powers - Iran, China and Russia - would be directly in conflict with US proxies in territories that are critical for their national security and therefore their role as great powers in a multipolar world. The US would be involved directly at least in the Middle East. And the risk of even greater escalation, including from North Korea against South Korea, Japan and the US, would be higher than ever.

The US under the current security establishment is deliberately threatening the core national security interests of its three biggest rivals simultaneously. We therefore conclude that it is willing to fight a world war to retain its global hegemony.